Matt Van Horn
9ee1291033
Reorder v2.5 features: Polymarket prediction markets and HN lead as #1, multi-signal quality-ranked relevance scoring as #2. Add Anthropic Odds example showcasing 11 live markets from a two-word query. Add Anthropic and OpenAI Polymarket transcripts to launch tweets. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
737 lines
40 KiB
Markdown
737 lines
40 KiB
Markdown
# v2.1 Launch Posts - WORKING DRAFT
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## Post 1 (Hook)
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V2.1 of @slashlast30days launches today. Three headline features:
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1. @openclaw + watchlists - automated research on your competitors, people, and topics
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2. YouTube transcripts as a 4th source
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3. Works in OpenAI Codex
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## Post 2 (Watchlist + Open Claw - THE KILLER FEATURE)
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@openclaw + WATCHLISTS.
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Pair /last30days with @openclaw and it re-researches topics on a schedule across Reddit, X, YouTube, and the web.
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"last30 watch my biggest competitor every week"
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"last30 watch Peter Steinberger every 30 days"
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"last30 watch AI video tools monthly"
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Research that runs while you sleep. Designed for @openclaw and always-on bots.
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## Post 3 (YouTube)
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YOUTUBE IS NOW A 4TH SOURCE.
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The skill searches YouTube, grabs view counts, and reads the actual transcripts. A 20-minute review has 10x the signal of one X post - now the skill reads it.
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## Post 4 (Codex)
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WORKS IN OPENAI CODEX.
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Same skill, same engine, same four sources. Install to ~/.agents/skills/last30days and invoke with $last30days. Claude Code and Codex users get the same research.
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## Post 5 (Example: Seedance 2.0 access)
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Asked it how to access Seedance 2.0.
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3 Reddit threads. 31 X posts. 20 YouTube videos (685K views, 4 transcripts read). 10 web pages. All four sources hit.
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It found the real answer buried in Chinese YouTube tutorials: Little Skylark (Xiao Yun Que) - zero cost, no queue, no VPN. Just select Seedance 2.0 from the model dropdown. Also surfaced: Disney sent ByteDance a cease-and-desist over uncensored IP generation.
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## Post 6 (Example: AI Generated Ads)
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Asked it about AI generated ads.
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12 Reddit threads. 29 X posts. 3 YouTube videos (83K views, 3 transcripts read). 30 web pages.
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The finding that stuck: Svedka ran the first "primarily AI-generated" Super Bowl spot. Brand match: 7%. Industry norm: 63%. Meanwhile 86% of ad buyers are planning to use AI for video ads anyway. Cost is winning over quality.
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## Post 7 (Example: Peter Steinberger)
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Asked it about @steipete.
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30 X posts. 5 YouTube videos (112K views). Found the Lex Fridman interview from 3 days ago.
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Key reveal: OpenAI and Meta both made acquisition offers for OpenClaw. He said no. He's losing $10-20K/month maintaining it. "A fun project became a world project."
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## Post 8 (Install)
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Tell your @openclaw bot:
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"Install the last30days skill from github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill"
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That's it. One message.
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## Post 9 (Close)
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Thank you to @hutchins for pushing me to add YouTube and to @steipete whose summarize tool showed me how yt-dlp could power transcript extraction.
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Try it: last30 [any topic]
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github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill
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PS: @steipete ClawHub login is broken right now so we can't publish the official skill there yet. Hoping for a fix soon.
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---
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## Standalone Posts
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### Greg Isenberg best tips
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Prompt: `last30 greg isenberg best tips`
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1 Reddit thread. 6 X posts. 4 YouTube videos (all transcribed). 8 web pages.
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His core playbook is ACP: Audience, Community, Product. Not the other way around.
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Big thesis: "2026 is the GREATEST time to build a startup in 30 years." Boring industries, AI agents, rapid dev tools collapsing build time.
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Most-watched: "Clawdbot Clearly Explained" (273K views), "Claude Code Built My $450K Marketing Campaign" (40K views), daily workflows with Kitze (83K views).
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@gregisenberg @slashlast30days
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### Lenny Rachitsky best learnings
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Prompt: `last30 lenny rachitsky top learnings`
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5 Reddit threads. 29 X posts. 20 YouTube videos (1.1M+ views, 5 transcribed). 30 web pages.
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"Execution is no longer the bottleneck. Clarity is." That's the thesis running through everything @lennysan has been publishing lately.
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He open-sourced 320 episode transcripts and the community went wild. 87 skills got built from them. Someone on Reddit distilled 86 discrete product skills from 100+ episodes.
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Recent guest highlights: Sherwin Wu (OpenAI) says 95% of their engineers use Codex daily. Marc Andreessen: "This is as normal as it's going to be. It's going to be much weirder very soon." Dalton Caldwell (YC): "just don't die" and avoid tar pit ideas.
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@lennysan @slashlast30days
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---
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## NOTES
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- Thread leads with Open Claw + watchlist as the killer feature - pair with an always-on bot for automated research
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- YouTube is the #2 hero - the stats ("685K views, 4 transcripts read") prove it works
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- Codex compatibility is #3 - brief but shows cross-platform reach
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- Example posts prove quality with verified results from real runs
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- Consider screenshots of the actual output for each example post
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- @steipete credit in close - he inspired YouTube (yt-dlp toolchain) and X search (Bird MIT code)
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- @slashlast30days vs /last30days - which handle? Used /last30days above since it's the actual command
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---
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## RAW RESULTS (for reference / pulling quotes)
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### Nano Banana Pro prompting (PROMPTING) - VERIFIED 2/15
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Stats: 0 Reddit (timed out) | 32 X posts | 164 likes | 22 reposts | 5 YouTube videos | 98,539 views | 5 with transcripts | 10 web pages
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Top voices: @KusoPhoto (106 likes), @TzqQaiser (35 likes) | Jake Dawson (15K views), AI Master (37K views)
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Key findings:
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- Structured JSON prompts are the meta - nested fields for character, scene, lighting beat plain prose. @TzqQaiser's viral post shows the format.
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- Design brief > keyword stuffing - "The second I started writing prompts like a real design brief, everything changed" - Jake Dawson on YouTube
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- 6-factor formula: Subject, Composition, Action, Setting, Style, then refine with camera/lighting - per Google's official blog
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- ICS framework for infographics: Image type + Content + Style - leverages Nano Banana Pro's unique legible text rendering
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- Scale logic for cinematic compositions - define size relationships and camera distance explicitly, per @Strength04_X
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- Nano Banana Pro → video pipeline trending (generate image, animate with Kling 3.0 or Veo 3.1) - per @KusoPhoto
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### Peter Steinberger / OpenClaw creator (GENERAL) - VERIFIED 2/15
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Stats: 31 X posts | 0 Reddit (quiet) | YouTube timed out on 2 | 4 web pages
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Top voices: @steipete | Lex Fridman podcast
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Key findings:
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- Lex Fridman podcast (Feb 12) went viral - "One of the most honest discussions I've seen"
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- OpenAI and Meta made acquisition offers (conditional on keeping project open) - he declined
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- Losing $10-20K/month maintaining OpenClaw, rejected crypto tokenization for funding
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- 180K+ GitHub stars, 6,600 commits in 1 month - "A fun project became a world project"
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- Also built: gogcli (Google Workspace CLI), summarize (URL/YouTube summarizer), bird (X/Twitter CLI)
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- Pragmatic Engineer: "I ship code I don't read"
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- Prediction: AI agents could dominate >60% of software economy by 2030
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### Seedance 2.0 Prompting (PROMPTING) - VERIFIED 2/15
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Stats: 21 Reddit threads | 33 X posts | 20 YouTube videos | 5 web pages
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Top voices: @charliebcurran (61K+ likes) | r/AI_Agents, r/ChatGPT, r/PromptEngineering | AI Search (127K views), Theoretically Media (157K views), Dan Dingle (126K views)
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Key findings:
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- "Slow and continuous" is the #1 prompting secret - rough state transitions = worse outcomes, per r/AI_Agents
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- Include timings in prompts (e.g., "0-3s: character walks, 3-6s: turns head") - per r/ChatGPT
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- Image-to-video for consistency - start with a reference image, not text-only
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- English works just as well as Chinese - per r/AI_India
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- CapCut integration coming = "every 12 year old in America will have this superpower"
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- Cost: ~$0.55/10s clips (~$3.30/min), Seedance 3.0 rumored at 1/8th price
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- Prompt resources: GitHub repo of curated prompts, Prompt Director Pro (440 settings system)
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- Top YouTube tutorials: "Seedance 2.0 crushes everything" (127K), "Claims the AI Video Throne" (157K), "ABUSING China's Crazy New Video AI" (126K)
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### OpenClaw best use cases for business (RECOMMENDATIONS)
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Stats: 35 Reddit threads | ~1,130 upvotes | ~566 comments | 23 X posts | ~24 likes | 20 YouTube videos | ~1,572,000 views | 5 with transcripts | 10 web pages
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Top voices: @gio__aa (8 likes), @ericosiu, @artyomx | r/openclaw, r/clawdbot, r/LocalLLaMA
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Key findings:
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- Email & Inbox Automation - 8+ mentions. One user cleared 4,000+ emails in two days. 10-15 hours/week saved.
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- Business Dashboards & Real-Time Reporting - 6+ mentions. @gio__aa: "Business dashboards are going to become one of the most popular use cases."
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- Morning Briefings - 5+ mentions. Pulls from calendars, weather, emails, RSS, GitHub, Hacker News on a schedule.
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- Content & SEO Pipelines - 5+ mentions. @ericosiu claims "$45k of pSEO work in 20 minutes."
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- Full CRM & Business Operations - 4+ mentions. @artyomx runs a daycare business, legal cases, and family comms through it with 5 AI agents.
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- Client Onboarding & Support - 4+ mentions. "70% of tickets handled autonomously."
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- Competitive Monitoring & Scraping - 4+ mentions.
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- Wrapper/Hosting SaaS - 3+ mentions. Building commercial wrappers around OpenClaw as a business.
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Cautions: malware in a top-downloaded skill (236 upvotes on r/LocalLLaMA), $25-50/day token burn risk, hours of config for marginal savings.
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### YouTube thumbnail tips (GENERAL)
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Stats: 7 Reddit threads | 654 upvotes | 176 comments | 32 X posts | 110 likes | 53 reposts | 18 YouTube videos | 6,150,368 views | 5 with transcripts | 30 web pages
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Top voices: @TeamYouTube, @thewindwolf64 | r/NewTubers, r/YouTubeThumbnailHub | Think Media (1.17M views), whirow (1.46M views)
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Key findings:
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- Simplicity is #1 - r/NewTubers post (654 upvotes) from someone who designed 346 thumbnails: one subject, one message, one second to understand. 3+ elements = ~23% lower CTR.
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- Less text = more clicks - Under 4 words gets ~30% higher CTR. Mobile thumbnails shrink to 168x94px - text becomes unreadable.
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- Faces still win but subtlety is trending - Faces boost CTR 20-30%, but exaggerated shock face is giving way to authentic expressions in 2026.
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- "UnThumbnails" are a counter-trend - Nate Black (71K views): deliberately raw, less-designed thumbnails that stand out.
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- AI tools changing the game - Nick Nimmin (90K views) showed free AI tools democratizing thumbnail creation.
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- A/B test everything - YouTube's built-in thumbnail testing lets you test up to 3 versions per video.
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### AI SaaS crash (NEWS)
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Stats: 9 Reddit threads | 31 upvotes | 52 comments | 32 X posts | 39 likes | 2 reposts | 20 YouTube videos | 929,648 views | 5 with transcripts | 30 web pages
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Top voices: @jasonlk (15 likes), @WarrenInTheBuff (11 likes), @xankriegor_ | r/SaaS, r/aiwars
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Key findings:
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- "SaaSpocalypse" - $285B wiped in a single day (Feb 3, 2026) after Anthropic launched Claude Cowork. Total losses exceeded $1T. Salesforce down 27% YTD, Oracle halved.
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- @jasonlk: "The real inflection point wasn't January 2026. It was June 2024 - when Claude 3.5 Sonnet shipped." Public SaaS growth rates declined every quarter since 2021 peak.
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- Seat-based pricing is the casualty - 10 AI agents replace 100 sales reps = no need for 100 Salesforce seats. $470B+ hyperscaler AI spend coming from enterprise software budgets.
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- Not everyone buying the doom - Jensen Huang called it "the most illogical thing in the world." BofA called selloff irrational.
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- Indian IT hit especially hard - biggest sell-off since 2020.
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### Seedance 2.0 access (GENERAL) - VERIFIED 2/15, ALL 4 SOURCES
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Stats: 3 Reddit threads | 114 upvotes | 183 comments | 31 X posts | 191 likes | 13 reposts | 20 YouTube videos | 685,297 views | 4 with transcripts | 10 web pages
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Top voices: @markgadala (116 likes), @OrctonAI, @nemovideoai | Theoretically Media (158K views) | r/AIHubSpace
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Key findings:
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- Little Skylark (Xiao Yun Que) = best free method - zero cost, no queue, manually select Seedance 2.0 from model dropdown, per YouTube tutorials
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- Jimeng (Dreamina) - 1 RMB trial (~$0.14), ~260 daily free credits, but severe congestion with hours-long waits for free users
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- Doubao App - 10 free video gens/day, requires joining Feishu/Lark group and submitting UID (1-2 day wait)
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- Feb 24 = global unlock - Dreamina + CapCut + API access through BytePlus
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- IP controversy exploding - @markgadala's "fully uncensored Seedance 2" post (116 likes) went viral, Disney sent C&D to ByteDance, SAG-AFTRA slammed "blatant infringement" over AI Tom Cruise/Brad Pitt fight videos
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- Third-party race - NemoVideoAI, ChatCut, RecCloud, Morph Studio all competing to be the English-language access point
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- Quality consensus: "crushes everything" (AI Search, 128K views), "claims the AI video throne" (Theoretically Media, 158K views)
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### AI Generated Ads (GENERAL) - VERIFIED 2/15, ALL 4 SOURCES
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Stats: 12 Reddit threads | 5 upvotes | 15 comments | 29 X posts | 101 likes | 3 reposts | 3 YouTube videos | 82,896 views | 3 with transcripts | 30 web pages
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Top voices: @CaptainMcKlide (77 likes), @ugcbykaytelynn | r/editors, r/AI_UGC_Marketing, BERNTH (39K views)
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Key findings:
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- Super Bowl 2026 was the watershed - 23% of ads (15/66) featured AI, reception "sharply negative," nearly 50% of social mentions critical
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- Svedka ran the first "primarily AI-generated" national Super Bowl spot - brand match of just 7% vs 63% alcohol industry norm
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- Massive perception gap - 82% of ad execs think Gen Z feels positive about AI ads, but only 45% of consumers do (IAB). Gen Z most hostile at 39% negative.
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- AI UGC booming in e-commerce - r/AI_UGC_Marketing active hub, tools: Creatify, MakeUGC, ArcAds targeting dropshippers
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- Quality still low - r/dropshipping: "the hand flip and rubbing on the face looks fake"
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- @ugcbykaytelynn warns "AI generated ads RUIN your brand's image"
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- Cost winning over quality - 86% of ad buyers using or planning gen AI for video ads, cost efficiency #1 driver (64%), per IAB
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- BERNTH on YouTube bought AI-generated guitar product ads, documented absurdity - four-fingered hands, instruments don't match listings (39K views)
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- Trust erosion spreading - people now question whether ANY media is real, even billboards, per @N0rbertas
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### last30days skill (META/GENERAL) - VERIFIED 2/15
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Stats: 0 Reddit | 30 X posts | 1,371 likes | 107 reposts | 5 YouTube videos | 112,082 views | 3 with transcripts | 10 web pages
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Top voices: @gregisenberg (1,290 likes), @mvanhorn (34 likes) | Alejandro AO (39K views), Greg Isenberg (28K views)
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Key findings:
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- @gregisenberg's post (1,290 likes, 106 RT) + YouTube video (28K views) "The Claude Code Skill My Smartest Friends Use" was the breakout moment
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- v2 feedback loop active - @trevin flagged OpenAI web_search not finding niche Reddit posts, suggested Brave API. @jonthebeef submitted PR for --days flag.
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- People building on top - @tjarkoleifer created "re-skill" meta skill, @rajachirravuri recommends it as part of a PM stack
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- Coverage: Alejandro AO crash course (39K views, 1,049 likes), Jason Calacanis on This Week in Startups (24K views)
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- 1.5K GitHub stars, listed on skills.sh and Smithery
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- Grok itself correctly attributed the skill when asked about ithah
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### Arizona Basketball (GENERAL) - VERIFIED 2/26, POLYMARKET INTEGRATION
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Stats: 2 Reddit threads | 112 upvotes | 37 X posts | ~4,200 likes | ~380 reposts | 15 YouTube videos | 517K views | 3 with transcripts | 6 Polymarket markets | ~30 web pages
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Top voices: @ArizonaMBB (960 likes), @MrAzSports (449 likes), @JonRothstein | r/CollegeBasketball
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Key findings:
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- Arizona 25-2 (13-2 Big 12), set program record with 22-0 start, 2-game Big 12 lead with 3 games left
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- Projected #1 seed in West region (San Jose) for March Madness per NCAA.com and CBS bracket previews
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- Polymarket odds: Championship 13%, #1 Seed 88%, Big 12 title race Arizona leads by 2
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- The Field of 68 dubbed them "the TOUGHEST team in America" after escaping Baylor 87-80 shorthanded
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- #1 ranking debate: Duke vs Arizona vs Michigan - Jon Rothstein has Duke #1, Arizona #2
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- Kansas rematch Feb 28: @ArizonaMBB promoting "STRIPE OUT" at McKale Center, first meeting highlight video 248K views on ESPN YouTube
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- Tommy Lloyd's March Madness record looms: 6-4 in four NCAA trips, never past Sweet 16
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Note: This was the test that validated the Polymarket two-pass query expansion (v2.2-cross). Previous version only found 2 markets (Big 12 title + irrelevant NAU game). New version finds 6 markets including Championship odds, #1 Seed, and Big 12 title race via tag-based domain expansion.
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Full output:
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```
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▐▛███▜▌ Claude Code v2.1.59
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▝▜█████▛▘ Opus 4.6 · Claude Max
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▘▘ ▝▝ /Users/mvanhorn
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❯ /last30daysCROSS arizona basketball
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⏺ I'll research arizona basketball across Reddit, X, and the web to find what's been discussed in the last 30
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days.
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Parsed intent:
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- TOPIC = arizona basketball
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- TARGET_TOOL = unknown
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- QUERY_TYPE = GENERAL
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Research typically takes 2-8 minutes. Starting now.
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⏺ Web Search("Arizona Wildcats basketball X twitter handle site:x.com")
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⎿ Did 1 search in 3s
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⏺ Resolved X handle: @ArizonaMBB (official Arizona Basketball account). Running research now.
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⏺ Bash(for dir in \
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"." \…)
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⎿ /last30days · researching: arizona basketball
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
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│ /last30days v2.1 — Source Status │
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… +129 lines (ctrl+o to expand)
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⎿ (timeout 5m)
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⏺ Research script complete. Now supplementing with web search.
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⏺ Web Search("arizona wildcats basketball 2026 season")
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⎿ Did 1 search in 7s
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⏺ Web Search("arizona basketball NCAA tournament March Madness 2026")
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⎿ Did 1 search in 6s
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⏺ Web Search("arizona wildcats basketball rankings Big 12 February 2026")
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⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
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⏺ What I learned:
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Arizona is having a historic season and the narrative is "Final Four or bust." The Wildcats are 25-2
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(13-2 Big 12), set a program record with a 22-0 start, and hold a 2-game lead atop the Big 12 with three
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games left. They're projected as a #1 seed in the West region (San Jose) for March Madness, per NCAA.com
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and CBS bracket previews.
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The team's identity is toughness and balance. The Field of 68 dubbed them "the TOUGHEST team in America"
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after they escaped Baylor 87-80 on Feb 24 - and they did it shorthanded, without Koa Peat or Dwayne
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Aristode. CBS Sports highlighted how "Arizona's BALANCE could take them to a Final Four" after the Houston
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road win. @ArizonaMBB's postgame content from the Baylor win pulled nearly 1,000 likes per post.
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The #1 ranking debate is real - Duke, Arizona, or Michigan? Jon Rothstein's latest rankings have Duke #1,
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Arizona #2, Michigan #3, per @JonRothstein. The Field of 68 ran a whole segment asking "Who MOST deserves
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to be No. 1?" with the verdict being "All THREE have a case." On Polymarket, bettors give Arizona a 13%
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chance to win the NCAA Tournament (Duke and Michigan each at 18%) and an 88% chance to earn a #1 seed.
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Saturday's Kansas rematch is the game everyone's watching. @ArizonaMBB is promoting a "STRIPE OUT" for the
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Feb 28 home game vs KU. Arizona beat Kansas 86-83 in Lawrence on Feb 10 (that highlight video has 248K
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views on ESPN's YouTube), and Locked On Wildcats is already breaking down "Arizona's ADJUSTMENTS to BEAT
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KANSAS" with a focus on Darryn Peterson's role. Nebraska fans are even rooting for Arizona in this one, per
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@jamespruch.
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The Big 12 title race is Arizona's to lose, but the schedule is brutal. Kansas, Iowa State, Houston, and
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Texas Tech are all tied at 11-4, two games back. Arizona closes with Kansas (Feb 28) and Iowa State - the
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toughest remaining schedule in the conference, per Heartland College Sports. A four-way tie for second is
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still possible.
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Tommy Lloyd's March Madness record looms large. The Wildcats are 6-4 in four NCAA Tournament trips under
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Lloyd and haven't made it past the Sweet 16. Yahoo Sports is asking the "Final Four or bust?" question
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directly - the talent and record demand a deep run this year.
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---
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All agents reported back!
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├─ 🟠 Reddit: 2 threads │ 112 upvotes
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├─ 🔵 X: 37 posts │ ~4,200 likes │ ~380 reposts
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├─ 🔴 YouTube: 15 videos │ 517K views │ 3 with transcripts
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├─ 📊 Polymarket: 6 markets │ Championship: 13%, #1 Seed: 88%, Big 12 title race: Arizona leads by 2
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├─ 🌐 Web: ~30 pages (supplementary)
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└─ 🗣️ Top voices: @ArizonaMBB (960 likes), @MrAzSports (449 likes), @JonRothstein │ r/CollegeBasketball
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---
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|
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---I'm now an expert on Arizona basketball. Some things I can help with:
|
||
- Break down the Kansas rematch - what adjustments does Arizona need and what's Darryn Peterson's role?
|
||
- Is "Final Four or bust" fair given Tommy Lloyd's March track record?
|
||
- Compare Arizona's title odds vs Duke and Michigan - who has the best path through the bracket?
|
||
|
||
✻ Sautéed for 3m 51s
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Iran War (NEWS) - VERIFIED 2/26, POLYMARKET INTEGRATION
|
||
|
||
Stats: 7 Reddit threads | 439 upvotes | 30 X posts | ~30 likes | 20 YouTube videos | 2,030,730 views | 5 with transcripts | 18 HN stories | 1,187 points | 849 comments | 14 Polymarket markets | $425M+ volume | 30 web pages
|
||
Top voices: Breaking Points (435K views), Judge Napolitano/Scott Ritter (272K views), TBN Israel (263K views) | r/politics, r/SubredditDrama
|
||
|
||
Key findings:
|
||
- Simultaneous war buildup and diplomacy: 150+ aircraft, two carrier strike groups deployed while third round of Geneva nuclear talks happening today
|
||
- Polymarket odds with $425M in volume: US strikes by 2026 70%, War Powers invocation 60%, Israel strikes by June 64%, Khamenei out by March 18%, enrichment deal 16%, formal war declaration only 8%
|
||
- Pentagon brass leaking opposition hard - Breaking Points (435K views) covered leaked assessments showing military leadership doesn't want this
|
||
- Scott Ritter's war breakdown on Judge Napolitano pulled 272K views, 15.9K likes
|
||
- Iraq War 2003 parallels drawn across all platforms - Al Jazeera ran direct comparison piece
|
||
- Iran playing both sides: FM Araghchi says deal "within reach" while IRGC seized two tankers near Farsi Island
|
||
- r/Conservative "imploding" after Trump struck Iran - "no wars" promise colliding with reality per r/SubredditDrama
|
||
- Markets expect limited strikes with War Powers, NOT a declared war - the sharpest signal in the entire research
|
||
|
||
Note: This was the "perfect" Polymarket test case - 14 markets found via tag-based domain expansion ("Geopolitics", "Middle East"). Iran/War appear directly in event titles so first-pass queries already find most markets. The domain expansion added 4 more.
|
||
|
||
Full output:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
▐▛███▜▌ Claude Code v2.1.59
|
||
▝▜█████▛▘ Opus 4.6 · Claude Max
|
||
▘▘ ▝▝ /Users/mvanhorn
|
||
|
||
❯ /last30daysCROSS iran war
|
||
|
||
⏺ I'll research iran war across Reddit, X, YouTube, Hacker News, Polymarket, and the web
|
||
to find what's been discussed in the last 30 days.
|
||
|
||
Parsed intent:
|
||
- TOPIC = iran war
|
||
- TARGET_TOOL = unknown
|
||
- QUERY_TYPE = NEWS
|
||
|
||
Research typically takes 2-8 minutes. Starting now.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(# Find skill root and run research script
|
||
for dir in \…)
|
||
⎿ (No output)
|
||
⎿ (timeout 5m)
|
||
|
||
⏺ The script returned no output. Let me check what happened and try again with more
|
||
diagnostics.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(SKILL_ROOT="$HOME/.claude/skills/last30daysCROSS"
|
||
[ -f "$SKILL_ROOT/scripts/last30days.py" ] && echo "Found at $SKILL_ROOT" || echo
|
||
"Not found at $SKILL_ROOT"…)
|
||
⎿ Not found at ls -la /scripts/
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(for dir in \
|
||
"$HOME/.claude/skills/last30daysCROSS" \…)
|
||
⎿ FOUND: /Users/mvanhorn/.claude/skills/last30daysCROSS/scripts/last30days.py
|
||
FOUND: /Users/mvanhorn/.claude/skills/last30days/scripts/last30days.py
|
||
FOUND: /Users/mvanhorn/.agents/skills/last30days/scripts/last30days.py
|
||
FOUND: /Users/mvanhorn/.codex/skills/last30days/scripts/last30days.py
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(python3 "$HOME/.claude/skills/last30daysCROSS/scripts/last30days.py" "iran war"
|
||
--emit=compact 2>&1)
|
||
⎿ /last30days · researching: iran war
|
||
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
|
||
│ /last30days v2.1 — Source Status │
|
||
… +287 lines (ctrl+o to expand)
|
||
⎿ (timeout 5m)
|
||
|
||
⏺ Good, got extensive results. Now let me supplement with web searches.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("iran war news February 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 11s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("US Iran military strikes update 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 10s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("Iran nuclear deal negotiations Trump 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
|
||
|
||
⏺ What I learned:
|
||
|
||
The US-Iran crisis is at a knife's edge - simultaneous war buildup and diplomacy. The
|
||
US has deployed its largest military concentration in the Middle East in decades -
|
||
150+ aircraft, two carrier strike groups (Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford) - while
|
||
a third round of nuclear talks is literally happening today in Geneva, per NPR and
|
||
Axios. Polymarket bettors have put $425M on strike timing, with 70% odds of US strikes
|
||
by year-end and 57% by March 31.
|
||
|
||
Pentagon brass is leaking opposition hard. Top generals are warning through back
|
||
channels that an Iran war would be a "disaster" - Breaking Points covered leaked
|
||
Pentagon assessments showing military leadership desperately doesn't want this. On
|
||
YouTube, the Breaking Points video alone pulled 435K views. Scott Ritter's breakdown
|
||
on Judge Napolitano (272K views, 15.9K likes) laid out what a war would actually look
|
||
like operationally. Per @TheGreenElf29 and r/politics, Iraq War parallels are
|
||
everywhere - Al Jazeera ran a piece directly comparing Trump's 2026 playbook to Bush's
|
||
2003 script.
|
||
|
||
Iran is playing both sides - "deal within reach" while seizing tankers. FM Araghchi
|
||
said a deal is "within reach" if diplomacy gets priority, but Iran's IRGC seized two
|
||
oil tankers near Farsi Island in early February and attempted to intercept a
|
||
US-escorted tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's line: any US strike, even
|
||
"limited," would be considered an act of aggression requiring retaliation, per
|
||
r/politics and Al Jazeera.
|
||
|
||
Prediction markets are the sharpest signal here. The money says:
|
||
- US strikes Iran by 2026: 70% (down 33% this month as talks progressed)
|
||
- Trump invokes War Powers by March 31: 60% (up 19% this month)
|
||
- Israel strikes Iran by June: 64% (up 8%)
|
||
- Khamenei out by March 31: 18%
|
||
- Iran agrees to end enrichment by March 31: 16%
|
||
- Official US war declaration: only 8%
|
||
|
||
The takeaway: markets expect strikes but NOT a declared war - a limited strike
|
||
scenario with War Powers invocation is the consensus bet.
|
||
|
||
Congress is pushing back. Sen. Kaine is pushing a war powers resolution requiring a
|
||
congressional vote before any Iran strike. On YouTube, his statement got 10K views.
|
||
Reddit's r/politics had three threads in the top-scored results all framing war as
|
||
imminent and catastrophic. Notably, a meta-thread on r/NoStupidQuestions (70 upvotes)
|
||
asked whether Reddit was censoring Iran war discussions - suggesting the topic is
|
||
hitting mainstream awareness fast.
|
||
|
||
r/Conservative is splitting. A SubredditDrama thread documented r/Conservative
|
||
"imploding" after Trump struck Iran - the "no wars" promise colliding with reality,
|
||
per r/SubredditDrama.
|
||
|
||
KEY PATTERNS from the research:
|
||
1. Dual-track crisis - war preparation and diplomacy happening simultaneously, with
|
||
Trump setting a 10-15 day deadline for a "meaningful deal," per Axios
|
||
2. Iraq playbook echo - commentators across all platforms drawing direct 2003
|
||
parallels, per Al Jazeera and r/politics
|
||
3. Military doesn't want this - Pentagon leaking opposition is a strong signal of
|
||
internal resistance, per Breaking Points (435K views)
|
||
4. Strait of Hormuz as flashpoint - tanker seizures and Iran's submarine capability in
|
||
shallow waters making this the likeliest escalation trigger, per HN and Stars and
|
||
Stripes
|
||
5. Real money says limited strikes, not full war - Polymarket odds suggest strikes but
|
||
only 8% chance of formal war declaration
|
||
|
||
---✅ All agents reported back!
|
||
├─ 🟠 Reddit: 7 threads │ 439 upvotes
|
||
├─ 🔵 X: 30 posts │ ~30 likes │ mostly real-time commentary
|
||
├─ 🔴 YouTube: 20 videos │ 2,030,730 views │ 5 with transcripts
|
||
├─ 🟡 HN: 18 stories │ 1,187 points │ 849 comments
|
||
├─ 📊 Polymarket: 14 markets │ US strikes by 2026: 70%, War Powers: 60%, Israel
|
||
strikes by June: 64%, Khamenei out March: 18%, Enrichment deal: 16%
|
||
├─ 🌐 Web: 30 pages (supplementary)
|
||
└─ 🗣️ Top voices: Breaking Points (435K views), Judge Napolitano/Scott Ritter (272K
|
||
views), TBN Israel (263K views) │ r/politics, r/SubredditDrama
|
||
---
|
||
I'm now an expert on the Iran war situation. Some things you could ask:
|
||
- What are the realistic scenarios for the next 2 weeks given the Geneva talks
|
||
deadline?
|
||
- How does the military buildup compare to June 2025 strikes, and what would "limited
|
||
strikes" actually target?
|
||
- What happens to oil markets and global economy if the Strait of Hormuz gets shut
|
||
down?
|
||
|
||
✻ Cogitated for 6m 5s
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Anthropic Odds (PREDICTION MARKETS) - VERIFIED 2/26, POLYMARKET INTEGRATION
|
||
|
||
Stats: 25 X posts | 218 likes | 38 reposts | 13 YouTube videos | 719,854 views | 4 with transcripts | 6 HN stories | 48 points | 36 comments | 11 Polymarket markets | ~30 web pages
|
||
Top voices: @tradermap_whale (whale trades), @predictheory (IPO odds), @Lolipeterh (Pentagon analysis) | CBS Mornings, CNN, Bloomberg
|
||
|
||
Key findings:
|
||
- Pentagon standoff is THE story: Defense Secretary Hegseth gave Anthropic a Friday deadline to drop AI guardrails for military use or face blacklisting via Defense Production Act
|
||
- Polymarket: Best AI model Feb 98% (Anthropic), March 61%, IPO before OpenAI 64%, $500B+ valuation 87%, FrontierMath 50% score 48% (up 28% today)
|
||
- Anthropic quietly loosened safety policy amid Pentagon pressure - CNN reports a caveat added to core safety promise. HN top comment: "The reality of competition."
|
||
- IPO odds volatile: Kalshi IPO-first odds "fell through the floor, ~70% down to the low teens in one move" per @predictheory
|
||
- Pentagon ban odds only 22% - money says it's posturing, not real blacklisting
|
||
|
||
Note: Perfect showcase for Polymarket as a source - 11 markets spanning model benchmarks, IPO timing, valuation milestones, Pentagon politics, and math benchmarks. Two-pass expansion found "Anthropic" as an outcome inside broader "best AI model" and "AI company IPO" events. Just two words ("anthropic odds") produced a comprehensive prediction market intelligence briefing.
|
||
|
||
Full output:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
▐▛███▜▌ Claude Code v2.1.59
|
||
▝▜█████▛▘ Opus 4.6 · Claude Max
|
||
▘▘ ▝▝ /Users/mvanhorn
|
||
|
||
❯ /last30daysCROSS anthropic odds
|
||
|
||
⏺ I'll research "anthropic odds" across Reddit, X, and the web to find what's been
|
||
discussed in the last 30 days.
|
||
|
||
Parsed intent:
|
||
- TOPIC = anthropic odds
|
||
- TARGET_TOOL = unknown
|
||
- QUERY_TYPE = GENERAL (broad interest in Anthropic's prospects, prediction markets,
|
||
competitive positioning)
|
||
|
||
Research typically takes 2-3 minutes. Starting now.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(for dir in \
|
||
"." \…)
|
||
⎿ /last30days · researching: anthropic odds
|
||
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
|
||
│ /last30days v2.1 — Source Status │
|
||
… +221 lines (ctrl+o to expand)
|
||
⎿ (timeout 5m)
|
||
|
||
⏺ Now let me run supplementary web searches.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("Anthropic odds prediction market 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("Anthropic IPO odds valuation 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("Anthropic Pentagon standoff AI military 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
|
||
|
||
⏺ What I learned:
|
||
|
||
Pentagon standoff is THE story right now - Defense Secretary Hegseth gave Anthropic a
|
||
Friday deadline to drop AI guardrails for military use or face blacklisting via the
|
||
Defense Production Act, per CBS, CNN, Bloomberg, and a wave of X posts from @The__GDD,
|
||
@trendy_tech_, and @jimkaskade. The trigger was Claude's use during the Maduro
|
||
capture operation in January. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei insists AI-controlled weapons
|
||
and mass surveillance are lines the company won't cross. Polymarket traders put the
|
||
ban odds at just 22%, signaling they think it's posturing, per @Lolipeterh.
|
||
|
||
Anthropic loosened its safety policy anyway - Amid the pressure, CNN reports Anthropic
|
||
quietly added a caveat to its core safety promise. HN's @KerrickStaley posted the
|
||
Bloomberg piece on this, with the top comment simply: "The reality of competition."
|
||
This is a significant moment - the first crack in Anthropic's safety-first brand.
|
||
|
||
Prediction markets love Anthropic's tech, skeptical on IPO - Polymarket gives
|
||
Anthropic a 98% chance of having the best AI model at end of February and 61% for
|
||
March (Google at 22%, OpenAI at 10%). Claude 4.6 is dominating. But the IPO picture is
|
||
murkier: @predictheory flagged that Anthropic IPO-first odds on Kalshi "fell through
|
||
the floor, ~70% down to the low teens in one move." Polymarket has Anthropic at 64% to
|
||
IPO before OpenAI, but 95% NO on an IPO by June 2026. Meanwhile, 87% odds Anthropic
|
||
hits $500B+ valuation this year - current valuation is $380B after a $30B raise led by
|
||
GIC and Coatue, per Fortune.
|
||
|
||
Claude FrontierMath odds surging - Polymarket's "Will Claude score 50% on
|
||
FrontierMath?" market jumped 28% today to 48% YES. This is a live bet on whether
|
||
Claude can crack elite-level math benchmarks by June 30.
|
||
|
||
Big money is piling in - Dan Sundheim's D1 Capital bets on Anthropic featured on
|
||
Invest Like The Best (18K views), and "Amazon's Quiet Bet on Anthropic" from Dumb
|
||
Money Live got 9K views. Anthropic's Super Bowl ads and the @grok account noting
|
||
Claude "self-reporting 15-20% consciousness odds" added to the buzz.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
All agents reported back!
|
||
├─ 🟠 Reddit: 3 threads (older, low engagement - all outside 30-day window)
|
||
├─ 🔵 X: 25 posts │ 218 likes │ 38 reposts
|
||
├─ 🔴 YouTube: 13 videos │ 719,854 views │ 4 with transcripts
|
||
├─ 🟡 HN: 6 stories │ 48 points │ 36 comments
|
||
├─ 📊 Polymarket: 11 markets │ Best model Feb: 98%, March: 61%, IPO first: 64%, $500B+
|
||
val: 87%, FrontierMath 50%: 48% (up 28% today)
|
||
├─ 🌐 Web: ~30 pages (supplementary)
|
||
└─ 🗣️ Top voices: @tradermap_whale (whale trades), @predictheory (IPO odds),
|
||
@Lolipeterh (Pentagon analysis) │ CBS Mornings, CNN, Bloomberg
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
---I'm now an expert on Anthropic odds. Some things I can help with:
|
||
- What are the realistic outcomes of the Pentagon standoff - does Anthropic fold,
|
||
fight, or find a middle ground?
|
||
- Break down the prediction market landscape - where's the smart money, and which bets
|
||
look mispriced?
|
||
- How does the safety policy loosening change Anthropic's competitive position vs
|
||
OpenAI and Google?
|
||
|
||
✻ Cooked for 2m 44s
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### OpenAI Polymarket (PREDICTION MARKETS) - VERIFIED 2/26, POLYMARKET INTEGRATION
|
||
|
||
Stats: 33 X posts | 1,129+ likes | 90+ reposts | 11 YouTube videos | 350,675 views | 4 with transcripts | 14 Polymarket markets | $21M+ volume (IPO markets alone) | 10 web pages
|
||
Top voices: @Polymarket (855 likes), @jayendra_jog (59), @camolNFT (36) | r/OpenAI, r/PolymarketTrading
|
||
|
||
Key findings:
|
||
- OpenAI IPO is the mega-market: $21M+ wagered, 51.5% odds of IPO by end of 2026, leading closing cap $1.25T-$1.5T at 52%
|
||
- AI agents eating Polymarket alive: automated traders extracted ~$40M through arbitrage, windows compressed from 12.3s to 2.7s
|
||
- OpenAI hardware bets: 200+ people working on "AI lamp", only 3.2% chance of consumer hardware by March, earbuds most likely at 46%
|
||
- Anthropic winning model race: 98% best model Feb, OpenAI "not even competitive this month"
|
||
- GPT-5.3 mystery bet: new wallet dropped $2,500 on NOT releasing by Feb 28, potential "OpenAI insider" per @camolNFT
|
||
- Sam Altman equity watch: 33% chance he gets OpenAI equity by June 30
|
||
|
||
Note: 14 Polymarket markets found - tag-based domain expansion pulled in "AI Companies", "Tech IPO" category markets. The AI agent arbitrage story is a perfect Polymarket meta-narrative: prediction markets being traded by the same AI tools we're researching.
|
||
|
||
Full output:
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
▐▛███▜▌ Claude Code v2.1.59
|
||
▝▜█████▛▘ Opus 4.6 · Claude Max
|
||
▘▘ ▝▝ /Users/mvanhorn
|
||
|
||
❯ /last30daysCROSS openai polymarket
|
||
|
||
⏺ I'll research openai polymarket across Reddit, X, and the web to find what's been
|
||
discussed in the last 30 days.
|
||
|
||
Parsed intent:
|
||
- TOPIC = openai polymarket
|
||
- TARGET_TOOL = unknown
|
||
- QUERY_TYPE = GENERAL
|
||
|
||
Research typically takes 2-3 minutes. Starting now.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Bash(cd "$HOME/.claude/skills/last30daysCROSS" && python3 scripts/last30days.py
|
||
"openai polymarket" --emit=compact 2>&1)
|
||
⎿ /last30days · researching: openai polymarket
|
||
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
|
||
│ /last30days v2.1 — Source Status │
|
||
… +198 lines (ctrl+o to expand)
|
||
⎿ (timeout 5m)
|
||
|
||
⏺ Good data. Now let me supplement with web searches.
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("OpenAI Polymarket prediction markets 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 7s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("OpenAI IPO prediction market odds discussion")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 8s
|
||
|
||
⏺ Web Search("AI agents trading Polymarket bots 2026")
|
||
⎿ Did 1 search in 9s
|
||
|
||
⏺ What I learned:
|
||
|
||
OpenAI's IPO is the mega-market - Polymarket traders have wagered $21M+ across
|
||
multiple markets tracking OpenAI's path to going public. The market gives just 51.5%
|
||
odds of an IPO by end of 2026, with "No IPO by Dec 31" at 49%. If it happens, the
|
||
leading closing cap bracket is $1.25T-$1.5T at 52% among if-IPO outcomes. Meanwhile,
|
||
only 11% chance of a $1T+ IPO before 2027 - and SpaceX crushes it at 95% vs OpenAI's
|
||
5% for higher IPO cap, per @Polymarket. The massive $100B funding round at $830B
|
||
valuation suggests OpenAI may be in no rush, per MLQ AI.
|
||
|
||
AI agents are eating Polymarket alive - This is the real crossover story. Automated
|
||
traders have extracted ~$40M through arbitrage, per Yahoo Finance. Arbitrage windows
|
||
have compressed from 12.3 seconds (2024) to just 2.7 seconds. OpenClaw and Clawdbot
|
||
are the dominant agent platforms - Coin Bureau Trading documented +1,560% ROI using
|
||
OpenClaw for Polymarket trading. New infrastructure like LuckyLobster just launched as
|
||
a dedicated AI-native execution layer for autonomous Polymarket trading, per
|
||
@jayendra_jog noting that crypto/prediction markets have "never had more mainstream
|
||
adoption."
|
||
|
||
OpenAI hardware bets are heating up - @Polymarket broke that OpenAI reportedly has
|
||
200+ people working on an "AI lamp" and other devices (810 likes). But the market is
|
||
skeptical: only 3.2% chance of a consumer hardware launch by March 31.
|
||
Earbuds/headphones are the most likely product category at 46%, per @k_shamil57907.
|
||
|
||
Anthropic is winning the model race, not OpenAI - The "best AI model end of February"
|
||
market has Anthropic at 98% with Google down 6.8% this week. OpenAI isn't even
|
||
competitive this month. On X, @JFahandazh is "very bullish on Anthropic - OpenAI could
|
||
never be this good."
|
||
|
||
GPT-5.3 mystery bet - @camolNFT flagged a new wallet dropping $2,500 on GPT-5.3 NOT
|
||
releasing by Feb 28, calling it a potential "OpenAI insider." The bet would net $1,000
|
||
profit if right.
|
||
|
||
Sam Altman equity watch - Will Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? Currently at 33%
|
||
on Polymarket, with @lexispawn taking a position at those odds, arguing "OpenAI board
|
||
restructuring is happening NOW."
|
||
|
||
---✅ All agents reported back!
|
||
├─ 🟠 Reddit: 3 threads │ low engagement (all below relevance threshold)
|
||
├─ 🔵 X: 33 posts │ 1,129+ likes │ 90+ reposts
|
||
├─ 🔴 YouTube: 11 videos │ 350,675 views │ 4 with transcripts
|
||
├─ 📊 Polymarket: 14 markets │ IPO cap: 52% at $1.25-1.5T, Best AI model: Anthropic
|
||
98%, Hardware by March: 3.2%, Altman equity: 33%, GPT-5.3 by Feb 28: betting NO
|
||
├─ 🌐 Web: 10 pages (supplementary)
|
||
└─ 🗣️ Top voices: @Polymarket (855 likes), @jayendra_jog (59), @camolNFT (36) │
|
||
r/OpenAI, r/PolymarketTrading
|
||
|
||
I'm now an expert on OpenAI + Polymarket. Some things I can help with:
|
||
- Break down the IPO timing odds vs. the $100B private funding - is the market saying
|
||
OpenAI doesn't need to go public?
|
||
- Explain the AI agent trading ecosystem (OpenClaw vs Clawdbot vs LuckyLobster) and
|
||
what strategies still work
|
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- Analyze why Anthropic is dominating the "best model" market while OpenAI leads in
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IPO hype
|
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|
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✻ Cogitated for 4m 18s
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``` |