Matt Van Horn
2ff9b6f6c1
- _compute_text_similarity() now checks outcome names with bidirectional substring matching (0.85) and token overlap (0.7), not just event titles - Collect outcomes from ALL active markets per event, filter to >1% price - Reorder outcome_prices to surface topic-matching outcome before top-3 truncation - Add SKILL.md "Prediction Markets" synthesis section with structural/long-term market preference, domain examples, citation format, and narrative weaving - Add Polymarket to citation priority list between HN and Web - Update stats box template to show up to 5 market odds - Fix render.py "vol24h" label to "volume" - Add NCAA seed fixture event for outcome-only matching tests - 82 polymarket tests pass (14 new) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
249 lines
7.1 KiB
JSON
249 lines
7.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"events": [
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{
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"id": "evt-arizona-big12",
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"title": "Will Arizona win the Big 12 Championship?",
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"slug": "arizona-big-12-championship",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-24T18:30:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 342000,
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"volume1wk": 1200000,
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"volume1mo": 3500000,
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"volume": 5000000,
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"liquidity": 2100000,
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"competitive": 0.92,
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"commentCount": 15,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-arizona-big12-1",
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"question": "Will Arizona win the Big 12 Championship?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.64\", \"0.36\"]",
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"volume": "1500000",
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"volume24hr": "342000",
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"liquidity": "2100000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.03,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.225,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.15,
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"endDate": "2026-03-15T00:00:00.000Z"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-arizona-ncaa",
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"title": "Will Arizona win the NCAA Tournament?",
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"slug": "arizona-ncaa-tournament",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-23T12:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 89000,
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"volume1wk": 400000,
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"volume1mo": 800000,
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"volume": 1200000,
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"liquidity": 450000,
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"competitive": 0.76,
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"commentCount": 8,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-arizona-ncaa-1",
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"question": "Will Arizona win the NCAA Tournament?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.12\", \"0.88\"]",
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"volume": "800000",
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"volume24hr": "89000",
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"liquidity": "450000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.02,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.117,
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"endDate": "2026-04-07T00:00:00.000Z"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-closed-resolved",
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"title": "Resolved Event (should be filtered)",
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"slug": "resolved-event",
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"active": true,
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"closed": true,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T10:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 0,
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"volume1mo": 0,
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"liquidity": 0,
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"competitive": 0,
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"commentCount": 0,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-resolved-1",
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"question": "Already resolved?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": true,
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
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"volume": "500000",
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"volume24hr": "0",
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"liquidity": "0",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-multi-outcome",
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"title": "Who will win the Big 12 Tournament?",
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"slug": "big-12-tournament-winner",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-24T20:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 150000,
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"volume1wk": 800000,
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"volume1mo": 2000000,
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"volume": 4000000,
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"liquidity": 1800000,
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"competitive": 0.99,
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"commentCount": 22,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-multi-1",
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"question": "Who will win the Big 12 Tournament?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Arizona\", \"Kansas\", \"Houston\", \"Iowa State\", \"BYU\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.35\", \"0.22\", \"0.18\", \"0.15\", \"0.10\"]",
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"volume": "2000000",
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"volume24hr": "150000",
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"liquidity": "1800000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.05,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.08,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.12
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-no-liquidity",
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"title": "Dead market (no liquidity)",
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"slug": "dead-market",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-10T00:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 0,
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"volume1mo": 0,
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"liquidity": 0,
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"competitive": 0,
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"commentCount": 0,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-dead-1",
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"question": "Dead market?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.50\", \"0.50\"]",
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"volume": "100",
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"volume24hr": "0",
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"liquidity": "0",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-malformed",
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"title": "Malformed prices",
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"slug": "malformed-prices",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T08:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 5000,
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"volume1mo": 50000,
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"liquidity": 30000,
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"competitive": 0.5,
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"commentCount": 1,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-malformed-1",
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"question": "Malformed outcomes?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "not valid json",
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"outcomePrices": "also not valid json",
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"volume": "50000",
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"volume24hr": "5000",
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"liquidity": "30000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-ncaa-seed",
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"title": "Who will be the #1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?",
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"slug": "ncaa-1-seed-2026",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-25T14:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 200000,
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"volume1wk": 900000,
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"volume1mo": 2500000,
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"volume": 6000000,
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"liquidity": 1500000,
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"competitive": 0.88,
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"commentCount": 12,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-ncaa-seed-1",
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"question": "Who will be the #1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Duke\", \"Arizona\", \"Houston\", \"Auburn\", \"Michigan\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.30\", \"0.28\", \"0.20\", \"0.12\", \"0.10\"]",
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"volume": "2500000",
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"volume24hr": "200000",
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"liquidity": "1500000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.02,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.06,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.10
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": "evt-tangential",
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"title": "Will AI regulation pass in 2026?",
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"slug": "ai-regulation-2026",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"updatedAt": "2026-02-24T10:00:00.000Z",
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"volume24hr": 500000,
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"volume1wk": 2000000,
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"volume1mo": 8000000,
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"volume": 15000000,
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"liquidity": 5000000,
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"competitive": 0.95,
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"commentCount": 50,
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"markets": [
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{
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"id": "mkt-tangential-1",
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"question": "Will AI regulation pass in 2026?",
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"active": true,
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"closed": false,
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"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"outcomePrices": "[\"0.30\", \"0.70\"]",
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"volume": "8000000",
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"volume24hr": "500000",
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"liquidity": "5000000",
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"oneDayPriceChange": -0.02,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.05,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.08
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}
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]
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}
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]
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}
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