Reduce Reddit and Polymarket false positives

Weight Reddit relevance toward titles, stop Polymarket from expanding low-signal standalone terms, and prevent short binary outcomes from matching unrelated queries.

Validation: uv run python -m unittest tests.test_reddit_sc tests.test_polymarket

scripts/lib/polymarket.py

@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@ from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
 from urllib.parse import quote_plus, urlencode
 
 from . import http
-from .relevance import token_overlap_relevance
+from .query_type import detect_query_type
+from .relevance import LOW_SIGNAL_QUERY_TOKENS, token_overlap_relevance
 
 GAMMA_SEARCH_URL = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search"
 
@@ -74,7 +75,7 @@ def _expand_queries(topic: str) -> List[str]:
     words = core.split()
     if len(words) >= 2:
         for word in words:
-            if len(word) > 1:  # skip single-char words
+            if len(word) > 1 and word.lower() not in LOW_SIGNAL_QUERY_TOKENS:
                 queries.append(word)
 
     # Add the full topic if different from core
@@ -327,19 +328,47 @@ def _compute_text_similarity(topic: str, title: str, outcomes: List[str] = None)
     if core in title_lower:
         return 1.0
 
-    best_score = token_overlap_relevance(core, title)
+    query_type = detect_query_type(topic)
+    title_score = token_overlap_relevance(core, title)
+    best_score = title_score
 
     if outcomes:
         for outcome_name in outcomes:
             outcome_lower = outcome_name.lower()
             outcome_score = token_overlap_relevance(core, outcome_name)
-            if core in outcome_lower or outcome_lower in core:
+            if _strong_phrase_match(core, outcome_lower):
                 outcome_score = max(outcome_score, 0.92 if len(outcome_lower.split()) >= 2 else 0.88)
+            if title_score < 0.3:
+                outcome_cap = 0.55 if query_type == "prediction" else 0.24
+                outcome_score = min(outcome_cap, outcome_score)
+            else:
+                outcome_score = max(title_score, 0.75 * title_score + 0.25 * outcome_score)
             best_score = max(best_score, outcome_score)
 
     return round(best_score, 2)
 
 
+def _strong_phrase_match(core: str, candidate: str) -> bool:
+    """Require real token matches, not accidental short substrings.
+
+    This prevents binary outcomes like "No" from matching "nano" or similar
+    short-string accidents.
+    """
+    candidate = " ".join(re.sub(r"[^\w\s]", " ", candidate.lower()).split())
+    core = " ".join(re.sub(r"[^\w\s]", " ", core.lower()).split())
+    if not candidate or not core:
+        return False
+
+    candidate_tokens = candidate.split()
+    core_tokens = set(core.split())
+
+    if len(candidate_tokens) >= 2:
+        return candidate in core or core in candidate
+
+    token = candidate_tokens[0]
+    return len(token) > 2 and token in core_tokens
+
+
 def _safe_float(val, default=0.0) -> float:
     """Safely convert a value to float."""
     try:

scripts/lib/reddit.py

@@ -202,8 +202,9 @@ def _normalize_post(post: Dict[str, Any], idx: int, source_label: str = "global"
     title = str(post.get("title", "")).strip()
     selftext = str(post.get("selftext", ""))
 
-    # Compute relevance from query-to-content overlap (or default 0.7)
-    relevance = token_overlap_relevance(query, title + " " + selftext) if query else 0.7
+    # Score the title first, then let the body provide limited support.
+    # This keeps long selftexts from overpowering the visible topic signal.
+    relevance = _compute_post_relevance(query, title, selftext) if query else 0.7
 
     return {
         "id": f"R{idx}",
@@ -223,6 +224,22 @@ def _normalize_post(post: Dict[str, Any], idx: int, source_label: str = "global"
     }
 
 
+def _compute_post_relevance(query: str, title: str, selftext: str) -> float:
+    """Compute Reddit relevance with title-first weighting.
+
+    Title should carry most of the weight because it is the visible summary the
+    user sees. Selftext can lift a marginal match, but it should not rescue a
+    weak or ambiguous title into the top ranks.
+    """
+    title_score = token_overlap_relevance(query, title)
+    if not selftext.strip():
+        return title_score
+
+    body_score = token_overlap_relevance(query, selftext)
+    support_score = max(title_score, body_score)
+    return round(0.75 * title_score + 0.25 * support_score, 2)
+
+
 def _global_search(
     query: str,
     token: str,

tests/test_polymarket.py

@@ -78,6 +78,12 @@ class TestExpandQueries(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertIn("new", queries)
         self.assertIn("idea", queries)
 
+    def test_low_signal_words_not_expanded_standalone(self):
+        queries = polymarket._expand_queries("anthropic odds")
+        self.assertIn("anthropic odds", queries)
+        self.assertIn("anthropic", queries)
+        self.assertNotIn("odds", queries)
+
 
 class TestExtractDomainQueries(unittest.TestCase):
     def _make_tag(self, label):
@@ -195,6 +201,37 @@ class TestFormatPriceMovement(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertIsNone(result)
 
 
+class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_short_binary_outcome_does_not_match_substring(self):
+        score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
+            "nano banana pro prompting",
+            "NATO x Russia military clash by...?",
+            ["No", "Yes"],
+        )
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.3)
+
+    def test_outcome_only_match_is_capped_for_non_prediction_queries(self):
+        score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
+            "kanye west",
+            "Top Spotify artist in March?",
+            ["Kanye West", "Taylor Swift"],
+        )
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.3)
+
+    def test_direct_title_match_beats_outcome_only_prediction_market(self):
+        direct = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
+            "anthropic odds",
+            "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?",
+            [],
+        )
+        generic = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
+            "anthropic odds",
+            "Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31",
+            ["Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Google"],
+        )
+        self.assertGreater(direct, generic)
+
+
 class TestParseOutcomePrices(unittest.TestCase):
     def test_binary_market_json_strings(self):
         market = {
@@ -590,27 +627,27 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertEqual(score, 1.0)
 
     def test_outcome_substring_match(self):
-        """Topic 'Arizona' should match outcome 'Arizona' even when title has no overlap."""
+        """Prediction queries can still use outcome-only entity matches."""
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
-            "Arizona",
+            "Arizona odds",
             "Who will be the #1 overall seed?",
             outcomes=["Duke", "Arizona", "Houston"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 1.0)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 0.55)
 
     def test_outcome_bidirectional_match(self):
-        """Topic 'Arizona Basketball' should match outcome 'Arizona' (outcome in core)."""
+        """Longer prediction topics keep the same moderated outcome-only cap."""
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
-            "Arizona Basketball",
+            "Arizona Basketball odds",
             "Who will be the #1 overall seed?",
             outcomes=["Duke", "Arizona", "Houston"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 0.88)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 0.55)
 
     def test_outcome_token_overlap(self):
-        """Partial token overlap with outcome gets a moderate score."""
+        """Outcome-only prediction matches stay moderate, not dominant."""
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
-            "Iran War",
+            "Iran War odds",
             "Unrelated geopolitics title",
             outcomes=["War continues", "Peace deal"],
         )
@@ -630,11 +667,11 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
         """Outcomes with price <= 1% should be filtered by the caller, not this function."""
         # This function doesn't filter - it trusts the caller to pass only relevant outcomes
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
-            "Arizona",
+            "Arizona odds",
             "Unrelated title",
             outcomes=["Arizona"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 1.0)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 0.55)
 
     def test_generic_only_odds_match_stays_below_threshold(self):
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(

tests/test_reddit_sc.py

@@ -158,5 +158,24 @@ class TestDepthConfig(unittest.TestCase):
         )
 
 
+class TestPostRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_body_cannot_rescue_weak_title_too_far(self):
+        score = reddit._compute_post_relevance(
+            "anthropic odds",
+            "President Trump orders agencies to stop using Anthropic technology",
+            "Long body text eventually mentions odds and other tangential details.",
+        )
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.7)
+        self.assertGreaterEqual(score, 0.5)
+
+    def test_exact_title_match_stays_high(self):
+        score = reddit._compute_post_relevance(
+            "claude code tips",
+            "Claude Code tips for faster workflows",
+            "",
+        )
+        self.assertGreater(score, 0.7)
+
+
 if __name__ == "__main__":
     unittest.main()