feat(polymarket): add Polymarket prediction markets as 6th research source
Search Polymarket's free Gamma API for relevant prediction markets on any
topic. Uses smart multi-query expansion to cast a wider net (e.g., "Arizona
Basketball" also searches "Arizona"), merges and dedupes by event ID, and
shows price movement context ("up 22.5% this week"). No API key required.
Also hides sources with zero results from the stats output (all sources).
54 new tests, all passing. Full pipeline integration with scoring, dedupe,
cross-source linking, and rendering.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Matt Van Horn
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"""Tests for Polymarket prediction market source module."""
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import json
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import math
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import sys
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import unittest
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from pathlib import Path
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# Add lib to path
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent / "scripts"))
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from lib import polymarket, normalize, schema, score
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class TestExtractCoreSubject(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_plain_topic(self):
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self.assertEqual(polymarket._extract_core_subject("Arizona Basketball"), "Arizona Basketball")
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def test_strips_last_n_days(self):
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self.assertEqual(polymarket._extract_core_subject("last 7 days Iran"), "Iran")
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def test_strips_what_are(self):
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result = polymarket._extract_core_subject("what are people saying about Bitcoin")
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self.assertEqual(result, "Bitcoin")
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def test_strips_tell_me_about(self):
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result = polymarket._extract_core_subject("tell me about Ukraine")
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self.assertEqual(result, "Ukraine")
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def test_strips_whitespace(self):
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self.assertEqual(polymarket._extract_core_subject(" Iran "), "Iran")
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def test_empty_string(self):
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self.assertEqual(polymarket._extract_core_subject(""), "")
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class TestExpandQueries(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_single_word(self):
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queries = polymarket._expand_queries("Iran")
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self.assertIn("Iran", queries)
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# Single word: no split, just the core
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self.assertEqual(len(queries), 1)
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def test_multi_word(self):
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queries = polymarket._expand_queries("Arizona Basketball")
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self.assertIn("Arizona Basketball", queries)
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self.assertIn("Arizona", queries)
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self.assertEqual(len(queries), 2)
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def test_with_prefix_stripped(self):
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queries = polymarket._expand_queries("last 7 days Iran")
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self.assertIn("Iran", queries)
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# Full topic should also be included since it differs from core
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self.assertIn("last 7 days Iran", queries)
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def test_deduplication(self):
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queries = polymarket._expand_queries("Iran")
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# Should not have duplicates
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self.assertEqual(len(queries), len(set(q.lower() for q in queries)))
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def test_max_4_queries(self):
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queries = polymarket._expand_queries("some really long topic with many words")
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self.assertLessEqual(len(queries), 4)
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class TestFormatPriceMovement(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_significant_monthly_change(self):
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market = {
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.005,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.02,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.117,
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}
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement(market)
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self.assertEqual(result, "down 11.7% this month")
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def test_significant_weekly_change(self):
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market = {
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.01,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.225,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.15,
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}
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement(market)
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self.assertEqual(result, "up 22.5% this week")
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def test_significant_daily_change(self):
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market = {
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"oneDayPriceChange": -0.15,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.02,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.03,
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}
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement(market)
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self.assertEqual(result, "down 15.0% today")
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def test_no_significant_change(self):
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market = {
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"oneDayPriceChange": 0.005,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.003,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.002,
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}
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement(market)
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self.assertIsNone(result)
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def test_missing_fields(self):
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement({})
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self.assertIsNone(result)
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def test_none_values(self):
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market = {
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"oneDayPriceChange": None,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": None,
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"oneMonthPriceChange": None,
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}
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result = polymarket._format_price_movement(market)
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self.assertIsNone(result)
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class TestParseOutcomePrices(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_binary_market_json_strings(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
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"outcomePrices": '["0.65", "0.35"]',
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 2)
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self.assertEqual(result[0], ("Yes", 0.65))
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self.assertEqual(result[1], ("No", 0.35))
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def test_list_inputs(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": ["Yes", "No"],
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"outcomePrices": ["0.70", "0.30"],
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 2)
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self.assertEqual(result[0], ("Yes", 0.70))
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def test_multi_outcome(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": '["Arizona", "Kansas", "Houston"]',
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"outcomePrices": '["0.35", "0.22", "0.18"]',
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 3)
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self.assertEqual(result[0][0], "Arizona")
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self.assertAlmostEqual(result[0][1], 0.35)
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def test_malformed_outcomes_json(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": "not valid json",
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"outcomePrices": '["0.50", "0.50"]',
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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# Should fall back to "Outcome N" names
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 2)
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self.assertEqual(result[0][0], "Outcome 1")
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def test_malformed_prices_json(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]',
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"outcomePrices": "not valid json",
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(result, [])
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def test_missing_prices(self):
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market = {"outcomes": '["Yes", "No"]'}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(result, [])
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def test_empty_outcomes(self):
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market = {
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"outcomes": "[]",
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"outcomePrices": '["0.50", "0.50"]',
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}
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result = polymarket._parse_outcome_prices(market)
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 2)
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# Should use fallback names
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self.assertEqual(result[0][0], "Outcome 1")
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class TestParsePolymarketResponse(unittest.TestCase):
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def setUp(self):
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fixture_path = Path(__file__).parent.parent / "fixtures" / "polymarket_sample.json"
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with open(fixture_path) as f:
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self.sample = json.load(f)
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def test_parses_active_events(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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# Should include Arizona Big 12, Arizona NCAA, multi-outcome, and malformed
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# Should exclude: closed/resolved event and no-liquidity event
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titles = [item["title"] for item in items]
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self.assertIn("Will Arizona win the Big 12 Championship?", titles)
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self.assertIn("Will Arizona win the NCAA Tournament?", titles)
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self.assertIn("Who will win the Big 12 Tournament?", titles)
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def test_filters_closed_events(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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titles = [item["title"] for item in items]
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self.assertNotIn("Resolved Event (should be filtered)", titles)
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def test_filters_no_liquidity(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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titles = [item["title"] for item in items]
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self.assertNotIn("Dead market (no liquidity)", titles)
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def test_item_fields(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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item = items[0] # Arizona Big 12
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self.assertEqual(item["event_id"], "evt-arizona-big12")
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self.assertEqual(item["url"], "https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-big-12-championship")
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self.assertIsNotNone(item["date"])
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self.assertIsNotNone(item["outcome_prices"])
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self.assertIsNotNone(item["volume24hr"])
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self.assertIsNotNone(item["liquidity"])
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def test_outcome_prices_parsed(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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item = items[0] # Arizona Big 12 - binary
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self.assertEqual(len(item["outcome_prices"]), 2)
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self.assertEqual(item["outcome_prices"][0][0], "Yes")
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self.assertAlmostEqual(item["outcome_prices"][0][1], 0.64)
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def test_multi_outcome_top3(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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multi = [i for i in items if i["title"] == "Who will win the Big 12 Tournament?"][0]
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# Top 3 outcomes shown
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self.assertEqual(len(multi["outcome_prices"]), 3)
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# 5 total - 3 shown = 2 remaining
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self.assertEqual(multi["outcomes_remaining"], 2)
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def test_price_movement(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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item = items[0] # Arizona Big 12
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# Weekly change (22.5%) is the most significant
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self.assertEqual(item["price_movement"], "up 22.5% this week")
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def test_date_extraction(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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item = items[0]
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self.assertEqual(item["date"], "2026-02-24")
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def test_relevance_range(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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for item in items:
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self.assertGreaterEqual(item["relevance"], 0.0)
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self.assertLessEqual(item["relevance"], 1.0)
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def test_empty_response(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response({"events": []})
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self.assertEqual(items, [])
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def test_missing_events_key(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response({})
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self.assertEqual(items, [])
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def test_malformed_prices_still_produces_item(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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malformed = [i for i in items if i["title"] == "Malformed prices"]
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self.assertEqual(len(malformed), 1)
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# Outcome prices should be empty due to malformed JSON
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self.assertEqual(malformed[0]["outcome_prices"], [])
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def test_end_date_extraction(self):
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items = polymarket.parse_polymarket_response(self.sample)
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item = items[0] # Arizona Big 12
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self.assertEqual(item["end_date"], "2026-03-15")
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class TestNormalizePolymarketItems(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_normalize(self):
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raw_items = [
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{
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"event_id": "evt-1",
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"title": "Test Market",
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"question": "Will test pass?",
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"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/test",
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"outcome_prices": [("Yes", 0.75), ("No", 0.25)],
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"outcomes_remaining": 0,
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"price_movement": "up 5.0% this week",
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"volume24hr": 100000.0,
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"liquidity": 500000.0,
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"date": "2026-02-20",
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"end_date": "2026-03-01",
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"relevance": 0.85,
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"why_relevant": "Prediction market: Test Market",
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}
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]
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result = normalize.normalize_polymarket_items(raw_items, "2026-01-01", "2026-03-01")
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 1)
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self.assertIsInstance(result[0], schema.PolymarketItem)
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self.assertEqual(result[0].id, "PM1")
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self.assertEqual(result[0].title, "Test Market")
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self.assertEqual(result[0].question, "Will test pass?")
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self.assertEqual(result[0].date_confidence, "high")
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self.assertEqual(result[0].engagement.volume, 100000.0)
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self.assertEqual(result[0].engagement.liquidity, 500000.0)
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self.assertEqual(result[0].price_movement, "up 5.0% this week")
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def test_normalize_multiple(self):
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raw_items = [
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{
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"event_id": f"evt-{i}",
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"title": f"Market {i}",
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"question": f"Question {i}?",
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"url": f"https://polymarket.com/event/test-{i}",
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"outcome_prices": [],
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"outcomes_remaining": 0,
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"volume24hr": 0.0,
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"liquidity": 0.0,
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"date": "2026-02-20",
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"relevance": 0.5,
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"why_relevant": f"Market {i}",
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}
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for i in range(3)
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]
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result = normalize.normalize_polymarket_items(raw_items, "2026-01-01", "2026-03-01")
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self.assertEqual(len(result), 3)
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self.assertEqual(result[0].id, "PM1")
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self.assertEqual(result[1].id, "PM2")
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self.assertEqual(result[2].id, "PM3")
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class TestScorePolymarketItems(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_score_items(self):
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items = [
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schema.PolymarketItem(
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id="PM1", title="High volume", question="Q1?", url="",
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date="2026-02-20",
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engagement=schema.Engagement(volume=500000.0, liquidity=2000000.0),
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relevance=0.9,
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),
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schema.PolymarketItem(
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id="PM2", title="Low volume", question="Q2?", url="",
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date="2026-02-18",
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engagement=schema.Engagement(volume=100.0, liquidity=500.0),
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relevance=0.5,
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),
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]
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scored = score.score_polymarket_items(items)
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self.assertEqual(len(scored), 2)
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# High engagement + high relevance should score higher
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self.assertGreater(scored[0].score, scored[1].score)
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def test_score_empty(self):
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result = score.score_polymarket_items([])
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self.assertEqual(result, [])
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def test_engagement_formula(self):
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eng = schema.Engagement(volume=100000.0, liquidity=500000.0)
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result = score.compute_polymarket_engagement_raw(eng)
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self.assertIsNotNone(result)
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self.assertGreater(result, 0)
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# Verify formula: 0.60 * log1p(volume) + 0.40 * log1p(liquidity)
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expected = 0.60 * math.log1p(100000.0) + 0.40 * math.log1p(500000.0)
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self.assertAlmostEqual(result, expected)
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def test_engagement_none(self):
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result = score.compute_polymarket_engagement_raw(None)
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self.assertIsNone(result)
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def test_engagement_empty(self):
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eng = schema.Engagement()
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result = score.compute_polymarket_engagement_raw(eng)
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self.assertIsNone(result)
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def test_zero_volume(self):
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eng = schema.Engagement(volume=0.0, liquidity=0.0)
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result = score.compute_polymarket_engagement_raw(eng)
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self.assertIsNotNone(result)
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self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
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class TestSortItemsWithPolymarket(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_pm_priority_after_hn(self):
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"""Polymarket should sort after HN at same score."""
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hn_item = schema.HackerNewsItem(id="HN1", title="test", url="", hn_url="", author="user")
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hn_item.score = 50
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pm_item = schema.PolymarketItem(id="PM1", title="test", question="test?", url="")
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pm_item.score = 50
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web_item = schema.WebSearchItem(id="W1", title="test", url="", source_domain="example.com", snippet="")
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web_item.score = 50
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sorted_items = score.sort_items([web_item, pm_item, hn_item])
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# Same score, so sorted by priority: HN(3) > PM(4) > Web(5)
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self.assertIsInstance(sorted_items[0], schema.HackerNewsItem)
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self.assertIsInstance(sorted_items[1], schema.PolymarketItem)
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self.assertIsInstance(sorted_items[2], schema.WebSearchItem)
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class TestPolymarketSchemaRoundTrip(unittest.TestCase):
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def test_to_dict_and_back(self):
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item = schema.PolymarketItem(
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id="PM1",
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title="Test Event",
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question="Will test pass?",
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url="https://polymarket.com/event/test",
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outcome_prices=[("Yes", 0.75), ("No", 0.25)],
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outcomes_remaining=0,
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price_movement="up 5.0% this week",
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date="2026-02-20",
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engagement=schema.Engagement(volume=100000.0, liquidity=500000.0),
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end_date="2026-03-01",
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relevance=0.85,
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why_relevant="Test",
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cross_refs=["R1", "HN2"],
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)
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d = item.to_dict()
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self.assertEqual(d["id"], "PM1")
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self.assertEqual(d["title"], "Test Event")
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self.assertEqual(d["cross_refs"], ["R1", "HN2"])
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def test_empty_crossrefs_omitted(self):
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item = schema.PolymarketItem(id="PM1", title="Test", question="Q?", url="")
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d = item.to_dict()
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self.assertNotIn("cross_refs", d)
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def test_report_roundtrip_with_polymarket(self):
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report = schema.Report(
|
||||
topic="test", range_from="2026-01-01", range_to="2026-02-01",
|
||||
generated_at="2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", mode="both",
|
||||
polymarket=[schema.PolymarketItem(
|
||||
id="PM1", title="Test", question="Q?", url="",
|
||||
outcome_prices=[("Yes", 0.5), ("No", 0.5)],
|
||||
cross_refs=["R1"],
|
||||
)],
|
||||
)
|
||||
d = report.to_dict()
|
||||
restored = schema.Report.from_dict(d)
|
||||
self.assertEqual(len(restored.polymarket), 1)
|
||||
self.assertEqual(restored.polymarket[0].id, "PM1")
|
||||
self.assertEqual(restored.polymarket[0].cross_refs, ["R1"])
|
||||
|
||||
def test_report_backward_compat_no_polymarket(self):
|
||||
"""Old cached reports without polymarket key should load fine."""
|
||||
data = {
|
||||
"topic": "test",
|
||||
"range": {"from": "2026-01-01", "to": "2026-02-01"},
|
||||
"generated_at": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z",
|
||||
"mode": "both",
|
||||
"reddit": [],
|
||||
"x": [],
|
||||
"web": [],
|
||||
"youtube": [],
|
||||
"hackernews": [],
|
||||
# No "polymarket" key
|
||||
}
|
||||
report = schema.Report.from_dict(data)
|
||||
self.assertEqual(report.polymarket, [])
|
||||
self.assertIsNone(report.polymarket_error)
|
||||
|
||||
def test_engagement_volume_liquidity(self):
|
||||
eng = schema.Engagement(volume=342000.0, liquidity=2100000.0)
|
||||
d = eng.to_dict()
|
||||
self.assertEqual(d["volume"], 342000.0)
|
||||
self.assertEqual(d["liquidity"], 2100000.0)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class TestDepthConfig(unittest.TestCase):
|
||||
def test_quick_depth(self):
|
||||
self.assertEqual(polymarket.DEPTH_CONFIG["quick"], 5)
|
||||
|
||||
def test_default_depth(self):
|
||||
self.assertEqual(polymarket.DEPTH_CONFIG["default"], 10)
|
||||
|
||||
def test_deep_depth(self):
|
||||
self.assertEqual(polymarket.DEPTH_CONFIG["deep"], 20)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
unittest.main()
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user