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feat(polymarket): add Polymarket prediction markets as 6th research source

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Search Polymarket's free Gamma API for relevant prediction markets on any
topic. Uses smart multi-query expansion to cast a wider net (e.g., "Arizona
Basketball" also searches "Arizona"), merges and dedupes by event ID, and
shows price movement context ("up 22.5% this week"). No API key required.

Also hides sources with zero results from the stats output (all sources).

54 new tests, all passing. Full pipeline integration with scoring, dedupe,
cross-source linking, and rendering.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Matt Van Horn
2026-02-25 22:27:19 -08:00
parent 52503f8e68
commit 994a4ab2ca
17 changed files with 1699 additions and 43 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
scripts/lib/render.py
+94 -9
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@@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ def _xref_tag(item) -> str:
source_names.add('YouTube')
elif ref_id.startswith('HN'):
source_names.add('HN')
elif ref_id.startswith('PM'):
source_names.add('Polymarket')
elif ref_id.startswith('W'):
source_names.add('Web')
if source_names:
@@ -53,9 +55,10 @@ def _assess_data_freshness(report: schema.Report) -> dict:
x_recent = sum(1 for x in report.x if x.date and x.date >= report.range_from)
web_recent = sum(1 for w in report.web if w.date and w.date >= report.range_from)
hn_recent = sum(1 for h in report.hackernews if h.date and h.date >= report.range_from)
pm_recent = sum(1 for p in report.polymarket if p.date and p.date >= report.range_from)
total_recent = reddit_recent + x_recent + web_recent + hn_recent
total_items = len(report.reddit) + len(report.x) + len(report.web) + len(report.hackernews)
total_recent = reddit_recent + x_recent + web_recent + hn_recent + pm_recent
total_items = len(report.reddit) + len(report.x) + len(report.web) + len(report.hackernews) + len(report.polymarket)
return {
"reddit_recent": reddit_recent,
@@ -276,6 +279,59 @@ def render_compact(report: schema.Report, limit: int = 15, missing_keys: str = "
lines.append("")
# Polymarket items
if report.polymarket_error:
lines.append("### Prediction Markets (Polymarket)")
lines.append("")
lines.append(f"**ERROR:** {report.polymarket_error}")
lines.append("")
elif report.polymarket:
lines.append("### Prediction Markets (Polymarket)")
lines.append("")
for item in report.polymarket[:limit]:
eng_str = ""
if item.engagement:
eng = item.engagement
parts = []
if eng.volume is not None:
if eng.volume >= 1_000_000:
parts.append(f"${eng.volume/1_000_000:.1f}M vol24h")
elif eng.volume >= 1_000:
parts.append(f"${eng.volume/1_000:.0f}K vol24h")
else:
parts.append(f"${eng.volume:.0f} vol24h")
if eng.liquidity is not None:
if eng.liquidity >= 1_000_000:
parts.append(f"${eng.liquidity/1_000_000:.1f}M liquidity")
elif eng.liquidity >= 1_000:
parts.append(f"${eng.liquidity/1_000:.0f}K liquidity")
else:
parts.append(f"${eng.liquidity:.0f} liquidity")
if parts:
eng_str = f" [{', '.join(parts)}]"
date_str = f" ({item.date})" if item.date else ""
lines.append(f"**{item.id}** (score:{item.score}){eng_str}{_xref_tag(item)}")
lines.append(f" {item.question}")
# Outcome prices with price movement
if item.outcome_prices:
outcomes = []
for name, price in item.outcome_prices:
pct = price * 100
outcomes.append(f"{name}: {pct:.0f}%")
outcome_line = " | ".join(outcomes)
if item.outcomes_remaining > 0:
outcome_line += f" and {item.outcomes_remaining} more"
if item.price_movement:
outcome_line += f" ({item.price_movement})"
lines.append(f" {outcome_line}")
lines.append(f" {item.url}")
lines.append(f" *{item.why_relevant}*")
lines.append("")
# Web items (if any - populated by the assistant)
if report.web_error:
lines.append("### Web Results")
@@ -323,7 +379,7 @@ def render_source_status(report: schema.Report, source_info: dict = None) -> str
elif report.reddit:
lines.append(f" ✅ Reddit: {len(report.reddit)} threads")
elif report.mode in ("both", "reddit-only", "all", "reddit-web"):
lines.append(" ⚠️ Reddit: 0 threads found")
pass # Hide zero-result sources
else:
reason = source_info.get("reddit_skip_reason", "not configured")
lines.append(f" ⏭️ Reddit: skipped — {reason}")
@@ -337,7 +393,7 @@ def render_source_status(report: schema.Report, source_info: dict = None) -> str
x_line += f" (via @{report.resolved_x_handle} + keyword search)"
lines.append(x_line)
elif report.mode in ("both", "x-only", "all", "x-web"):
lines.append(" ⚠️ X: 0 posts found")
pass # Hide zero-result sources
else:
reason = source_info.get("x_skip_reason", "No Bird CLI or XAI_API_KEY")
lines.append(f" ⏭️ X: skipped — {reason}")
@@ -348,17 +404,21 @@ def render_source_status(report: schema.Report, source_info: dict = None) -> str
elif report.youtube:
with_transcripts = sum(1 for v in report.youtube if getattr(v, 'transcript_snippet', None))
lines.append(f" ✅ YouTube: {len(report.youtube)} videos ({with_transcripts} with transcripts)")
else:
reason = source_info.get("youtube_skip_reason", "yt-dlp not installed (brew install yt-dlp)")
lines.append(f" ⏭️ YouTube: skipped — {reason}")
# Hide when zero results (no skip reason line needed)
# Hacker News
if report.hackernews_error:
lines.append(f" ❌ HN: error - {report.hackernews_error}")
elif report.hackernews:
lines.append(f" ✅ HN: {len(report.hackernews)} stories")
else:
lines.append(" ⏭️ HN: 0 stories found")
# Hide when zero results
# Polymarket
if report.polymarket_error:
lines.append(f" ❌ Polymarket: error - {report.polymarket_error}")
elif report.polymarket:
lines.append(f" ✅ Polymarket: {len(report.polymarket)} markets")
# Hide when zero results
# Web
if report.web_error:
@@ -399,6 +459,8 @@ def render_context_snippet(report: schema.Report) -> str:
all_items.append((item.score, "X", item.text[:50] + "...", item.url))
for item in report.hackernews[:5]:
all_items.append((item.score, "HN", item.title[:50] + "...", item.hn_url))
for item in report.polymarket[:5]:
all_items.append((item.score, "Polymarket", item.question[:50] + "...", item.url))
for item in report.web[:5]:
all_items.append((item.score, "Web", item.title[:50] + "...", item.url))
@@ -515,6 +577,29 @@ def render_full_report(report: schema.Report) -> str:
lines.append("")
# Polymarket section
if report.polymarket:
lines.append("## Prediction Markets (Polymarket)")
lines.append("")
for item in report.polymarket:
lines.append(f"### {item.id}: {item.question}")
lines.append("")
lines.append(f"- **Event:** {item.title}")
lines.append(f"- **URL:** {item.url}")
lines.append(f"- **Date:** {item.date or 'Unknown'}")
lines.append(f"- **Score:** {item.score}/100")
if item.outcome_prices:
outcomes = [f"{name}: {price*100:.0f}%" for name, price in item.outcome_prices]
lines.append(f"- **Outcomes:** {' | '.join(outcomes)}")
if item.price_movement:
lines.append(f"- **Trend:** {item.price_movement}")
if item.engagement:
eng = item.engagement
lines.append(f"- **Volume:** ${eng.volume or 0:,.0f} | Liquidity: ${eng.liquidity or 0:,.0f}")
lines.append("")
# Web section
if report.web:
lines.append("## Web Results")