diff --git a/scripts/last30days.py b/scripts/last30days.py
index 29365ad..4bdfb02 100644
--- a/scripts/last30days.py
+++ b/scripts/last30days.py
@@ -1838,6 +1838,7 @@ def main():
     deduped_hn = score.relevance_filter(deduped_hn, "HN")
     deduped_bsky = score.relevance_filter(deduped_bsky, "BLUESKY")
     deduped_ts = score.relevance_filter(deduped_ts, "TRUTHSOCIAL")
+    deduped_pm = score.relevance_filter(deduped_pm, "POLYMARKET") if deduped_pm else []
 
     # Cross-source linking: annotate items that discuss the same story
     dedupe.cross_source_link(
diff --git a/scripts/lib/polymarket.py b/scripts/lib/polymarket.py
index 27c93da..f9da705 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/polymarket.py
+++ b/scripts/lib/polymarket.py
@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
 from urllib.parse import quote_plus, urlencode
 
 from . import http
+from .relevance import token_overlap_relevance
 
 GAMMA_SEARCH_URL = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search"
 
@@ -314,8 +315,8 @@ def _shorten_question(question: str) -> str:
 def _compute_text_similarity(topic: str, title: str, outcomes: List[str] = None) -> float:
     """Score how well the event title (or outcome names) match the search topic.
 
-    Returns 0.0-1.0. Title substring match gets 1.0, outcome match gets 0.85/0.7,
-    title token overlap gets proportional score.
+    Returns 0.0-1.0. Exact title phrase match gets 1.0. Otherwise we reuse the
+    shared query-centric relevance scorer and take the best title/outcome match.
     """
     core = _extract_core_subject(topic).lower()
     title_lower = title.lower()
@@ -326,27 +327,17 @@ def _compute_text_similarity(topic: str, title: str, outcomes: List[str] = None)
     if core in title_lower:
         return 1.0
 
-    # Check if topic appears in any outcome name (bidirectional)
+    best_score = token_overlap_relevance(core, title)
+
     if outcomes:
-        core_tokens = set(core.split())
-        best_outcome_score = 0.0
         for outcome_name in outcomes:
             outcome_lower = outcome_name.lower()
-            # Bidirectional: "arizona" in "arizona basketball" OR "arizona basketball" contains "arizona"
+            outcome_score = token_overlap_relevance(core, outcome_name)
             if core in outcome_lower or outcome_lower in core:
-                best_outcome_score = max(best_outcome_score, 0.85)
-            elif core_tokens & set(outcome_lower.split()):
-                best_outcome_score = max(best_outcome_score, 0.7)
-        if best_outcome_score > 0:
-            return best_outcome_score
+                outcome_score = max(outcome_score, 0.92 if len(outcome_lower.split()) >= 2 else 0.88)
+            best_score = max(best_score, outcome_score)
 
-    # Token overlap fallback against title
-    topic_tokens = set(core.split())
-    title_tokens = set(title_lower.split())
-    if not topic_tokens:
-        return 0.5
-    overlap = len(topic_tokens & title_tokens)
-    return overlap / len(topic_tokens)
+    return round(best_score, 2)
 
 
 def _safe_float(val, default=0.0) -> float:
@@ -484,7 +475,8 @@ def parse_polymarket_response(response: Dict[str, Any], topic: str = "") -> List
             except (IndexError, TypeError):
                 end_date = None
 
-        # Quality-signal relevance (replaces position-based decay)
+        # Semantic relevance should dominate. Market quality should refine
+        # relevant matches, not rescue unrelated high-liquidity events.
         text_score = _compute_text_similarity(topic, title, all_outcome_names) if topic else 0.5
 
         # Volume signal: log-scaled monthly volume (most stable signal)
@@ -504,13 +496,13 @@ def parse_polymarket_response(response: Dict[str, Any], topic: str = "") -> List
         # Competitive bonus: markets near 50/50 are more interesting
         competitive_score = event_competitive
 
-        relevance = min(1.0, (
-            0.30 * text_score +
-            0.30 * vol_score +
-            0.15 * liq_score +
+        market_quality = (
+            0.50 * vol_score +
+            0.25 * liq_score +
             0.15 * movement_score +
             0.10 * competitive_score
-        ))
+        )
+        relevance = min(1.0, text_score * (0.75 + 0.25 * market_quality))
 
         # Surface the topic-matching outcome to the front before truncating
         if topic and outcome_prices:
diff --git a/scripts/lib/reddit.py b/scripts/lib/reddit.py
index 8714ed1..6871eb0 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/reddit.py
+++ b/scripts/lib/reddit.py
@@ -108,12 +108,14 @@ def expand_reddit_queries(topic: str, depth: str) -> List[str]:
     if core.lower() != original_clean.lower() and len(original_clean.split()) <= 8:
         queries.append(original_clean)
 
-    # Add opinion/review variant except for how_to/comparison queries
+    # Opinion/review variants help mostly for product and opinion queries.
+    # They contaminate broader searches like predictions or breaking news.
     qtype = detect_query_type(topic)
-    if depth in ("default", "deep") and qtype not in ("how_to", "comparison"):
+    if depth in ("default", "deep") and qtype in ("product", "opinion"):
         queries.append(f"{core} worth it OR thoughts OR review")
 
-    if depth == "deep":
+    # Problem/bug variants are useful for tool workflows, not generic news.
+    if depth == "deep" and qtype in ("product", "opinion", "how_to"):
         queries.append(f"{core} issues OR problems OR bug OR broken")
 
     return queries
diff --git a/scripts/lib/relevance.py b/scripts/lib/relevance.py
index eb57b61..88c0f0e 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/relevance.py
+++ b/scripts/lib/relevance.py
@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 """Shared token-overlap relevance scoring for search result ranking.
 
-Tokenizes text, expands synonyms, and computes query-to-content overlap ratios.
+The score is intentionally query-centric:
+- exact phrase matches should score very high
+- partial matches should pay a meaningful penalty
+- matches on generic words alone ("odds", "review") should not pass as relevant
 """
 
 import re
@@ -36,6 +39,18 @@ SYNONYMS = {
     'vuejs': {'vue'},
 }
 
+# Generic query words that should not carry relevance on their own.
+# They still help when paired with stronger entity/topic matches.
+LOW_SIGNAL_QUERY_TOKENS = frozenset({
+    'advice', 'animation', 'animations', 'best', 'chance', 'chances',
+    'code', 'compare', 'comparison', 'differences', 'explain', 'guide',
+    'guides', 'how', 'latest', 'news', 'odds', 'opinion', 'opinions',
+    'prediction', 'predictions', 'probability', 'probabilities', 'prompt',
+    'prompting', 'prompts', 'rate', 'review', 'reviews', 'thoughts',
+    'tip', 'tips', 'tutorial', 'tutorials', 'update', 'updates', 'use',
+    'using', 'versus', 'vs', 'worth',
+})
+
 
 def tokenize(text: str) -> Set[str]:
     """Lowercase, strip punctuation, remove stopwords, drop single-char tokens.
@@ -51,15 +66,25 @@ def tokenize(text: str) -> Set[str]:
     return expanded
 
 
+def _normalize_phrase(text: str) -> str:
+    """Normalize text for phrase containment checks."""
+    return ' '.join(re.sub(r'[^\w\s]', ' ', text.lower()).split())
+
+
 def token_overlap_relevance(
     query: str,
     text: str,
     hashtags: Optional[List[str]] = None,
 ) -> float:
-    """Compute relevance as ratio of query tokens found in text.
+    """Compute a query-centric relevance score between 0.0 and 1.0.
 
-    Uses ratio overlap (intersection / query_length) so short queries
-    score higher when fully represented in the text. Floors at 0.1.
+    The score combines:
+    - query coverage
+    - informative-token coverage
+    - a small precision term to penalize extra noise
+    - an exact phrase bonus
+
+    Generic tokens alone are capped below the post-retrieval 0.3 threshold.
 
     Args:
         query: Search query
@@ -68,7 +93,7 @@ def token_overlap_relevance(
             hashtags are split to match query tokens (e.g. "claudecode" matches "claude").
 
     Returns:
-        Float between 0.1 and 1.0 (0.5 for empty queries)
+        Float between 0.0 and 1.0 (0.5 for empty queries)
     """
     q_tokens = tokenize(query)
 
@@ -89,6 +114,35 @@ def token_overlap_relevance(
     if not q_tokens:
         return 0.5  # Neutral fallback for empty/stopword-only queries
 
-    overlap = len(q_tokens & t_tokens)
-    ratio = overlap / len(q_tokens)
-    return max(0.1, min(1.0, ratio))
+    overlap_tokens = q_tokens & t_tokens
+    overlap = len(overlap_tokens)
+    if overlap == 0:
+        return 0.0
+
+    informative_q_tokens = {t for t in q_tokens if t not in LOW_SIGNAL_QUERY_TOKENS}
+    if not informative_q_tokens:
+        informative_q_tokens = q_tokens
+
+    coverage = overlap / len(q_tokens)
+    informative_overlap = len(informative_q_tokens & t_tokens) / len(informative_q_tokens)
+    precision_denominator = min(len(t_tokens), len(q_tokens) + 4) or 1
+    precision = overlap / precision_denominator
+
+    phrase_bonus = 0.0
+    normalized_query = _normalize_phrase(query)
+    normalized_text = _normalize_phrase(combined)
+    if normalized_query and normalized_query in normalized_text:
+        phrase_bonus = 0.12 if len(normalized_query.split()) > 1 else 0.16
+
+    base = (
+        0.55 * (coverage ** 1.35) +
+        0.25 * informative_overlap +
+        0.20 * precision
+    )
+
+    # If we only matched generic query words, keep the score below the
+    # normal relevance filter threshold so these do not survive by default.
+    if informative_q_tokens and not (informative_q_tokens & t_tokens):
+        return round(min(0.24, base), 2)
+
+    return round(min(1.0, base + phrase_bonus), 2)
diff --git a/scripts/lib/score.py b/scripts/lib/score.py
index 9ac8502..2e0a0ad 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/score.py
+++ b/scripts/lib/score.py
@@ -11,6 +11,12 @@ WEIGHT_RELEVANCE = 0.45
 WEIGHT_RECENCY = 0.25
 WEIGHT_ENGAGEMENT = 0.30
 
+# Polymarket needs stronger semantic weighting because volume/liquidity already
+# show up as engagement and lightly influence parse-time relevance.
+PM_WEIGHT_RELEVANCE = 0.60
+PM_WEIGHT_RECENCY = 0.20
+PM_WEIGHT_ENGAGEMENT = 0.20
+
 # WebSearch weights (no engagement data available)
 WEBSEARCH_WEIGHT_RELEVANCE = 0.55
 WEBSEARCH_WEIGHT_RECENCY = 0.45
@@ -632,9 +638,9 @@ def score_polymarket_items(items: List[schema.PolymarketItem]) -> List[schema.Po
         )
 
         overall = (
-            WEIGHT_RELEVANCE * rel_score +
-            WEIGHT_RECENCY * rec_score +
-            WEIGHT_ENGAGEMENT * eng_score
+            PM_WEIGHT_RELEVANCE * rel_score +
+            PM_WEIGHT_RECENCY * rec_score +
+            PM_WEIGHT_ENGAGEMENT * eng_score
         )
 
         if eng_raw[i] is None:
diff --git a/tests/test_instagram_sc.py b/tests/test_instagram_sc.py
index 59fa3a8..6ca2b14 100644
--- a/tests/test_instagram_sc.py
+++ b/tests/test_instagram_sc.py
@@ -57,9 +57,9 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
         boosted = instagram._compute_relevance("claude code", "random video about stuff", ["claudecode", "ai"])
         self.assertGreater(boosted, base)
 
-    def test_floor_at_01(self):
+    def test_no_match_returns_zero(self):
         rel = instagram._compute_relevance("quantum physics", "cat dancing video")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(rel, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(rel, 0.0)
 
     def test_empty_query_returns_default(self):
         rel = instagram._compute_relevance("", "Some video title")
diff --git a/tests/test_polymarket.py b/tests/test_polymarket.py
index 8298740..0c4e73b 100644
--- a/tests/test_polymarket.py
+++ b/tests/test_polymarket.py
@@ -569,8 +569,9 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_partial_token_overlap(self):
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity("Arizona Basketball", "Will Arizona win?")
-        # "Arizona" matches, "Basketball" doesn't -> 0.5
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(score, 0.5)
+        # Partial informative match should stay below exact match.
+        self.assertGreater(score, 0.3)
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.6)
 
     def test_no_overlap(self):
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity("Arizona Basketball", "Will AI regulation pass?")
@@ -595,7 +596,7 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
             "Who will be the #1 overall seed?",
             outcomes=["Duke", "Arizona", "Houston"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 0.85)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 1.0)
 
     def test_outcome_bidirectional_match(self):
         """Topic 'Arizona Basketball' should match outcome 'Arizona' (outcome in core)."""
@@ -604,16 +605,17 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
             "Who will be the #1 overall seed?",
             outcomes=["Duke", "Arizona", "Houston"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 0.85)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 0.88)
 
     def test_outcome_token_overlap(self):
-        """Partial token overlap with outcome gets 0.7 when no substring match."""
+        """Partial token overlap with outcome gets a moderate score."""
         score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
             "Iran War",
             "Unrelated geopolitics title",
             outcomes=["War continues", "Peace deal"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 0.7)
+        self.assertGreater(score, 0.3)
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.6)
 
     def test_outcome_no_match(self):
         """No outcome match falls through to title token overlap."""
@@ -632,7 +634,15 @@ class TestTextSimilarity(unittest.TestCase):
             "Unrelated title",
             outcomes=["Arizona"],
         )
-        self.assertEqual(score, 0.85)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 1.0)
+
+    def test_generic_only_odds_match_stays_below_threshold(self):
+        score = polymarket._compute_text_similarity(
+            "Anthropic odds",
+            "Republican 2026 House odds",
+            outcomes=["Yes", "No"],
+        )
+        self.assertLess(score, 0.3)
 
     def test_title_match_still_beats_outcome(self):
         """Title substring match (1.0) takes priority over outcome match (0.85)."""
diff --git a/tests/test_reddit_sc.py b/tests/test_reddit_sc.py
index d621de8..a212055 100644
--- a/tests/test_reddit_sc.py
+++ b/tests/test_reddit_sc.py
@@ -47,16 +47,28 @@ class TestExpandRedditQueries(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertGreaterEqual(len(queries), 1)
 
     def test_default_includes_review_variant(self):
-        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE", "default")
+        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE pricing", "default")
         self.assertTrue(any("worth it" in q or "review" in q for q in queries))
 
+    def test_default_skips_review_variant_for_prediction(self):
+        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("anthropic odds", "default")
+        self.assertFalse(any("worth it" in q or "review" in q for q in queries))
+
+    def test_default_skips_review_variant_for_breaking_news(self):
+        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("kanye west", "default")
+        self.assertFalse(any("worth it" in q or "review" in q for q in queries))
+
     def test_deep_includes_issues_variant(self):
-        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE", "deep")
+        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE pricing", "deep")
         self.assertTrue(any("issues" in q or "problems" in q for q in queries))
 
+    def test_deep_skips_issues_variant_for_prediction(self):
+        queries = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("anthropic odds", "deep")
+        self.assertFalse(any("issues" in q or "problems" in q for q in queries))
+
     def test_deep_has_more_queries_than_quick(self):
-        quick = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE", "quick")
-        deep = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE", "deep")
+        quick = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE pricing", "quick")
+        deep = reddit.expand_reddit_queries("cursor IDE pricing", "deep")
         self.assertGreater(len(deep), len(quick))
 
 
diff --git a/tests/test_relevance.py b/tests/test_relevance.py
index c641e76..368b1d1 100644
--- a/tests/test_relevance.py
+++ b/tests/test_relevance.py
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ class TestTokenOverlapRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_floor_at_0_1(self):
         rel = token_overlap_relevance("quantum physics", "cat dancing video")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(rel, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(rel, 0.0)
 
     def test_full_match_returns_1(self):
         rel = token_overlap_relevance("python tutorial", "Python Tutorial for Beginners")
@@ -96,6 +96,15 @@ class TestTokenOverlapRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
         rel = token_overlap_relevance("the a is", "some content here")
         self.assertEqual(rel, 0.5)
 
+    def test_generic_only_overlap_stays_below_filter_threshold(self):
+        rel = token_overlap_relevance("anthropic odds", "Republican house odds update")
+        self.assertLess(rel, 0.3)
+
+    def test_informative_partial_match_stays_above_generic_only(self):
+        generic_only = token_overlap_relevance("anthropic odds", "Republican house odds update")
+        informative = token_overlap_relevance("anthropic odds", "Anthropic valuation market")
+        self.assertGreater(informative, generic_only)
+
 
 class TestHashtagRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
     """Tests for hashtag-aware relevance (TikTok/Instagram pattern)."""
diff --git a/tests/test_scrapecreators_x.py b/tests/test_scrapecreators_x.py
index 0ebb429..2359c7a 100644
--- a/tests/test_scrapecreators_x.py
+++ b/tests/test_scrapecreators_x.py
@@ -44,9 +44,9 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
         score = scrapecreators_x._compute_relevance("", "some text")
         self.assertEqual(score, 0.5)
 
-    def test_floor_at_01(self):
+    def test_no_match_returns_zero(self):
         score = scrapecreators_x._compute_relevance("abcdef ghijkl", "xyz")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(score, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(score, 0.0)
 
 
 class TestExtractCoreSubject(unittest.TestCase):
diff --git a/tests/test_tiktok.py b/tests/test_tiktok.py
index 3307dcc..91e68be 100644
--- a/tests/test_tiktok.py
+++ b/tests/test_tiktok.py
@@ -33,9 +33,9 @@ class TestTikTokRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
         rel = tiktok._compute_relevance("", "Some video title")
         self.assertEqual(rel, 0.5)
 
-    def test_floor(self):
+    def test_no_match_returns_zero(self):
         rel = tiktok._compute_relevance("quantum physics", "cat dancing video")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(rel, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(rel, 0.0)
 
 
 class TestExtractCoreSubject(unittest.TestCase):
diff --git a/tests/test_youtube_relevance.py b/tests/test_youtube_relevance.py
index 432cb69..51e2ceb 100644
--- a/tests/test_youtube_relevance.py
+++ b/tests/test_youtube_relevance.py
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_no_match(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("Claude Code", "Python Web Scraping")
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.1)  # Floor
+        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
 
     def test_empty_query_returns_neutral(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("", "Some Video Title")
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_empty_title(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("Claude Code", "")
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.1)  # Floor
+        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
 
     def test_case_insensitive(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("claude code", "CLAUDE CODE Tutorial")
@@ -89,9 +89,9 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
         )
         self.assertEqual(result, 1.0)
 
-    def test_floor_at_0_1(self):
+    def test_no_match_returns_zero(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("quantum computing", "cat videos compilation")
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
 
     def test_cap_at_1_0(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("AI", "AI AI AI AI AI")
@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ class TestComputeRelevance(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_single_word_no_match(self):
         result = _compute_relevance("Seedance", "Random cooking video")
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.1)
+        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":