# last30days v2.5 Launch Thread

## FINAL THREAD (6 tweets)

### 1/6 - Announcement

I can't believe it's been 30 days since I launched @slashlast30days. 3.2k stars later, time for v2.5.

Three big additions:
1. @Polymarket prediction markets as a 6th source - helps you predict the future
2. Cross-source linking + massively better results - detects when the same story trends across multiple platforms. Ran a 15-way blinded comparison, v2.5 scored 4.38 vs 3.73 for the original. Won all 5 topics.
3. Hacker News as a 5th source - a window into the tech and developer insider world

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

### 2/6 - Demo: Anthropic vs Pentagon

"/last30days Anthropic Pete Hegseth"

14 Reddit threads. 29 X posts (11,559 likes). 20 YouTube videos (739K views). 5 HN stories. 9 Polymarket markets.

This story broke TODAY. Hegseth designated Anthropic a "supply chain risk." Trump ordered every agency to stop using their tech.

Polymarket: Anthropic still 99% for best AI model. $500B+ valuation: 68%. IPO >$600B: 97%. Hegseth out by March: only 6%.

Markets say Anthropic wins regardless. That's the kind of signal you can't get from opinion threads.

### 3/6 - Demo: Seedance Prompting

"/last30days Seedance prompting"

13 Reddit threads. 33 X posts. 20 YouTube videos (1.2M views, 4 transcripts). 15 web pages.

Top finding: Seedance 2.0 prompts follow a director's shot-list format, not freeform text. 30-100 words. Subject + Action + Camera + Scene + Style. Beyond 100 words, results degrade.

Then I said: "a cinematic drone shot over a city at golden hour"

It wrote me a copy-paste prompt using the exact patterns from the research. Research first, then create from what you learned.

### 4/6 - Demo: Arizona Basketball

"/last30days arizona basketball"

6 Polymarket markets. 37 X posts (4,200 likes). 15 YouTube videos (517K views). 2 Reddit threads.

Arizona is 25-2, set a program record with a 22-0 start, and holds a 2-game Big 12 lead with 3 games left. The Field of 68 called them "the TOUGHEST team in America" after escaping Baylor shorthanded. Kansas rematch Saturday - the highlight video from their first meeting has 248K views on ESPN's YouTube.

Polymarket: Championship 13%. #1 seed: 88%. Duke and Michigan each at 18% to win it all.

That's not a sports blog. That's Reddit reactions + X engagement + YouTube analysis + prediction market odds from one command.

### 5/6 - Demo: Iran War

"/last30days iran war"

2 Reddit threads. 34 X posts (10,048 likes). 20 YouTube videos (1.6M views, 5 transcripts). 4 HN stories (850 points). 14 Polymarket markets ($473M volume).

Geneva talks just ended without a deal. 150+ US aircraft deployed. Two carrier strike groups in position. F-22s sent to Israel. Members of Congress who saw the secret war plan came out "terrified." @cenkuygur: "they are about to drag us into a war that 70-85% of Americans oppose" (7,700 likes).

Polymarket ($473M in volume - one of their biggest markets ever): strikes by 2026: 80%. By March 31: 68%. War Powers invoked: 51%. Formal war declaration: only 12%.

Markets say: strikes are very likely, declared war is not. That's the sharpest signal in the entire research.

### 6/6 - Thank You

Thank you to ARJ999 and wkbaran on GitHub who filed three separate issues asking for Hacker News support. v2.5 delivers.

It's been a crazy 30 days. 3.2k stars. Six sources. Massively better results. Super excited to get this out.

Try it: /last30days [any topic]

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

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## REFERENCE MATERIAL BELOW

## Context
- 3.2k stars on GitHub
- V2.5 headline features: Polymarket (6th source), Hacker News (5th source), cross-source linking
- Ran 15-way blinded comparison: 4.38/5.0 vs 3.73/5.0
- Won all 5 topics, zero regressions
- Cross-source linking: 3 -> 13 linked items
- Demo topics: Anthropic odds (11 markets), Arizona basketball (6 markets), Iran war ($425M volume)

---

## Post 1: Lead (Announcement)

V2.5 of @slashlast30days is out. Now with @Polymarket prediction markets, cross-source linking, and massively better results.

1. Polymarket as a 6th source - real money on outcomes, no API key needed
2. Hacker News as a 5th source
3. Cross-source linking - detects when the same story trends across multiple platforms

Ran a 15-way blinded comparison across 5 topics. v2.5 scored 4.38 vs 3.73 for the original. Won all 5. Zero regressions.

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

---

## Post 2: POLYMARKET AS A 6TH SOURCE.

Reddit tells you what people think. X tells you what people share. YouTube tells you what people watch. HN tells you what developers discuss.

Polymarket helps you predict the future.

"/last30days anthropic odds"

11 markets found. Best AI model February: Anthropic 98%. IPO before OpenAI: 64%. $500B+ valuation: 87%. Pentagon ban odds: only 22%.

Free API. No key. Real money on outcomes.

---

## Post 3: CROSS-SOURCE LINKING.

When a Seedance 2.0 tutorial has 44K YouTube views AND trends on HN AND gets discussed on Reddit, v2.5 flags it: [also on: HN, YouTube]

Old version linked 3 items across 5 test topics. New version links 13. The difference is hybrid similarity - combining character-trigram and token-level matching at a tuned threshold.

Cross-platform convergence is the strongest signal that something actually matters. Not engagement on one platform. Convergence across all of them.

---

## Post 4: 15-WAY BLINDED EVALUATION.

I don't trust vibes for measuring quality. So I ran a scientific comparison.

5 topics x 3 versions. Stripped version labels. Randomized as A/B/C. Scored on groundedness, specificity, coverage, actionability, and format.

v2.5: 4.38/5.0
v2.2 (HN only): 4.10/5.0
v2.0 (original): 3.73/5.0

Won all 5 topics. Zero regressions. Biggest gains: specificity (+0.8) and format (+1.0) from cross-source linking giving the synthesis better material to work with.

---

## Post 5: Demo - Anthropic Odds

Asked it about Anthropic odds.

11 Polymarket markets. 25 X posts. 13 YouTube videos (719K views). 6 HN stories (471 points).

Best AI model February: 98%. IPO before OpenAI: 64%. $500B+ valuation: 87%. FrontierMath 50% score: 48% (up 28% today). Pentagon ban: only 22%.

Markets say Anthropic is winning the model race AND the valuation race. The Pentagon thing is noise.

---

## Post 6: Demo - Arizona Basketball

"/last30days arizona basketball"

6 Polymarket markets. 37 X posts (4,200 likes). 15 YouTube videos (517K views). 2 Reddit threads.

Championship odds: 13%. #1 seed: 88%. Big 12 title: Arizona leads by 2.

That's not a sports blog. That's Reddit reactions + X engagement + YouTube analysis + prediction market odds from one command.

The Polymarket integration uses two-pass query expansion. First pass finds "Arizona Big 12." Second pass discovers the championship and #1 seed markets via tag-based domain bridging.

---

## Post 7: Demo - Iran War

The best Polymarket demo is news.

"/last30days iran war"

14 Polymarket markets. $425M+ in volume. 7 Reddit threads. 30 X posts. 20 YouTube videos (2M views). 18 HN stories (1,187 points).

US strikes Iran by 2026: 70%. War Powers by March: 60%. Israel strikes by June: 64%. Formal war declaration: only 8%.

Markets say: limited strikes with War Powers, NOT a declared war. Breaking Points (435K views) covered leaked Pentagon opposition. r/Conservative "imploding" per r/SubredditDrama.

One command. Six sources. Real money.

---

## Post 8: Credits + CTA

Also in v2.5: YouTube synonym expansion ("hip hop" now matches "rap" - relevance jumped 0.33 to 0.71), X handle resolution, and HN OR queries for framework topics.

The difference between "good research" and "research you'd actually trust" is in details like this.

Try it: /last30days [any topic]

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

---

## Post 9: Demo - Claude Code (ALL 6 sources)

"/last30days Claude Code"

3 Reddit threads (199 upvotes). 35 X posts (5,239 likes). 15 YouTube videos (1.4M views, 5 transcripts). 30 HN stories (~8,500 points). 8 Polymarket markets. 20 web pages.

All six sources hit. Top finding: the planning-first workflow has won. The #1 HN post this month (969 pts, 590 comments) is about separating planning from execution. Boris Cherny (Head of Claude Code) on Lenny's Podcast: "100% of my code is written by Claude Code - I have not edited a single line by hand since November."

Polymarket: Anthropic 99% for best AI model in February. 58% for March. Claude on FrontierMath at 55%. The US government rejected Claude - Polymarket has the Hegseth ban at 32%.

Then I asked it to dig deeper into the planning-first workflow. No new searches - it answered from what it already learned.

---

## Post 10: Demo - March Madness Odds (Polymarket + Sports)

"/last30days March Madness Odds"

2 Reddit threads. 31 X posts. 6 YouTube videos (46K views, 4 transcripts). 2 Polymarket markets.

Tournament winner: Duke 18%, Michigan 18%, Arizona 13%. #1 seeds: Michigan 98%, Duke 91%, Arizona 88%.

Duke is the hottest mover - went from +700 to +450 in one week. The skill surfaced that from sportsbook data, X commentary, and Polymarket odds simultaneously.

Then I asked it to break down Michigan vs Duke vs Arizona. Full analysis from the research it already had.

---

## Post 11: Demo - Seedance Prompting (Expert + Prompt Mode)

"/last30days Seedance prompting"

13 Reddit threads. 33 X posts. 20 YouTube videos (1.2M views, 4 transcripts). 1 HN story. 15 web pages.

Top finding: Seedance 2.0 prompts follow a director's shot-list format, not freeform text. 30-100 words. Subject + Action + Camera + Scene + Style + Constraints. Beyond 100 words, results degrade.

Then I said: "a cinematic drone shot over a city at golden hour"

It wrote me a copy-paste prompt using the exact patterns from the research. That's the skill's real power - research first, then create from what you learned.

---

## Post 12: Thank You + CTA (Final)

Thank you to ARJ999 and wkbaran on GitHub who kept asking for Hacker News support. Three separate issues. v2.5 delivers.

30 days. 3.2k stars. 6 sources. Massively better results.

Try it: /last30days [any topic]

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

---

## Post 13: Demo - Anthropic vs Pentagon (Breaking News + Polymarket)

"/last30days Anthropic Pete Hegseth"

14 Reddit threads. 29 X posts (11,559 likes). 20 YouTube videos (739K views, 5 transcripts). 5 HN stories. 9 Polymarket markets. 10 web pages.

This story broke TODAY. Defense Secretary Hegseth designated Anthropic a "supply chain risk" - believed to be the first time an American company has ever received this designation. Trump ordered every federal agency to stop using Anthropic tech.

Polymarket: Anthropic still 99% for best AI model. $500B+ valuation: 68%. IPO >$600B: 97%. Hegseth out by March 31: only 6%.

Markets say: Anthropic wins the model race regardless. Bettors don't think Hegseth survives this. That's the kind of signal you can't get from opinion threads.

---

## Post 14: Demo - OpenAI Insider Trading (News + Polymarket)

"/last30days OpenAI Insider Trading"

2 Reddit threads. 29 X posts. 4 YouTube videos (360K views, 4 transcripts). 2 HN stories. 15 Polymarket markets. 15 web pages.

An OpenAI employee was just fired for using confidential info to bet on Polymarket. 13 brand-new wallets appeared 40 hours before the browser launch. $309K bet on the right outcome. Unusual Whales flagged 77 suspected insider positions across 60 wallets.

Meanwhile Polymarket has OpenAI's IPO at $1.25-1.5T: 54%. Anthropic IPOs first: 62%. Best AI model: Anthropic 99%.

The prediction markets are both the story AND the source. One command pulled all of it together.

---

## Standalone Tweet: Polymarket Stats Line

"/last30days Anthropic Pete Hegseth"

The Pentagon just designated Anthropic a supply chain risk. First time ever for an American company. Trump ordered every agency to stop using their tech.

Here's what Polymarket says:

📊 9 markets │ Best AI model: 99% │ $500B+ valuation: 68% │ IPO >$600B: 97% │ Hegseth out by March: 6%

Bettors with real money on the line think Anthropic wins the model race, goes public at a massive valuation, and Hegseth doesn't survive this.

That's the gap between headlines and reality. One command, six sources.

github.com/mvanhorn/last30days-skill

---

## Recommended Thread Order (pick 8-10)

The full thread above is 12 posts. Here's what I'd cut to keep it tight:

**Must include (core story):**
1. Post 1 - Lead announcement
2. Post 2 - Polymarket ("Reddit tells you what people think...")
3. Post 3 - Cross-source linking
4. Post 4 - Blinded evaluation

**Best demos (pick 3-4):**
- Post 13 (Anthropic vs Pentagon) - STRONGEST. Breaking news today. Polymarket cuts through the noise. "Markets say Anthropic wins regardless."
- Post 9 (Claude Code) - All 6 sources. Massive numbers. Shows follow-up flow.
- Post 10 (March Madness) - Sports/Polymarket crossover. Timely with tournament approaching.
- Post 11 (Seedance) - Shows prompting flow. 1.2M YouTube views.
- Post 5 (Anthropic Odds) - Overlaps with Post 13 now. Skip.

**Skip or save for standalone tweets:**
- Post 5 (Anthropic Odds) - Redundant with Post 13
- Post 6 (Arizona Basketball) - Covered by March Madness now
- Post 7 (Iran War) - Great standalone tweet, not for launch thread
- Post 8 (Credits/minor features) - Fold into CTA

**My recommended 8-post thread:**
1. Lead (Post 1)
2. Polymarket (Post 2)
3. Cross-source linking (Post 3)
4. Blinded evaluation (Post 4)
5. Demo: Anthropic vs Pentagon (Post 13) - breaking news, best Polymarket showcase
6. Demo: Claude Code (Post 9)
7. Demo: March Madness (Post 10)
8. Thank you + CTA (Post 12)

---

## Video Script (~60 seconds)

**[Talking to camera]**

Oh my god, I can't believe it's been 30 days since I launched last30days. 3,200 stars on GitHub. This has been the craziest month.

Today I'm shipping v2.5 and I'm really excited about this one. Three big things.

**[Screen recording: typing /last30days Anthropic Pete Hegseth]**

First - Polymarket prediction markets as a 6th source. So this Anthropic-Pentagon story broke today. Hegseth designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, Trump ordered agencies to stop using their tech. Scary headline, right?

But Polymarket says: Anthropic still 99% for best AI model. IPO above 600 billion: 97%. Hegseth out by March: 6%. Real money on outcomes helps you predict the future. That's a different story than the headlines.

**[Screen recording: typing /last30days arizona basketball]**

Second - it now searches Hacker News and does cross-source linking. When the same story shows up on Reddit AND YouTube AND HN, it flags it. I ran a 15-way blinded comparison and v2.5 scored 4.38 versus 3.73 for the original. Won all 5 test topics.

**[Back to camera]**

Thank you to everyone who starred it, filed issues, and kept pushing me to make this better. Shoutout to the people on GitHub who literally filed three separate issues asking for Hacker News. v2.5 delivers.

Link in bio. Try it on anything.

---

## Scoring Note

The 4.38 vs 3.73 score is from a custom 5-dimension rubric (30% groundedness, 25% specificity, 20% coverage, 15% actionability, 10% format compliance) evaluated by Claude on blinded outputs. The relative ranking is meaningful; the absolute numbers are not. It's an LLM grading LLM output - useful for A/B comparison, not for claiming "4.38 out of 5 quality."

If using the score in a tweet, frame it as "scored X vs Y on a blinded comparison" not "rated 4.38/5.0 quality" - the former is honest, the latter implies an objective standard that doesn't exist.
